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DownUpDownUpDown
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
BNB Up or Down - November 12, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET
Resolved Up. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
5
Down 60%
Total Value
$100.86
Combined PnL
-$107.89
Smart Money Signal
Down
3 of 5 top traders (60%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Up100%
Down0%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Down3 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares468
Combined PnL-$133.85
Up2 traders
Total Value$100.86
Total Shares101
Combined PnL+$25.96
Down — 60%Up — 40%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100 | Downavg 19¢ | $57 | — | -$57 | 37% 585-985 (1570) |
LI Little-big<$100 | Upavg 68¢ | $48.2 | $70.86 | +$22.66 | 53% 582-524 (1106) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100 | Downavg 32.1¢ | $48.23 | — | -$48.23 | 55% 1208-984 (2192) |
UN uninformedfloww<$100 | Upavg 46¢ | $26.7 | $30 | +$3.3 | 50% 1101-1104 (2205) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Downavg 39.9¢ | $36.27 | — | -$28.61 | 60% 2210-1484 (3694) |
0X
0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100Invested
$57
Value
—
PnL
-$57
Record
37%
585-985 (1570)
LI
Little-big<$100Invested
$48.2
Value
$70.86
PnL
+$22.66
Record
53%
582-524 (1106)
KA
Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100Invested
$48.23
Value
—
PnL
-$48.23
Record
55%
1208-984 (2192)
UN
uninformedfloww<$100Invested
$26.7
Value
$30
PnL
+$3.3
Record
50%
1101-1104 (2205)
AA
aaa221CTR<$100Invested
$36.27
Value
—
PnL
-$28.61
Record
60%
2210-1484 (3694)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0xcbda04a2...329beb
Slug
bnb-updown-15m-1794477600