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UpDownDownDown
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100Down
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
BNB Up or Down - October 28, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET
Resolved Up. 100% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
4
Down 100%
1 arb excluded
Total Value
$262.67
Combined PnL
-$80.51
Smart Money Signal
Down
4 of 4 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
Loading chart data…
Outcome Probabilities
Up100%
Down0%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Down4 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares100
Combined PnL-$80.51
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KA Kathod-Shi-14ARB<$100 | Upavg 41.6¢ | $136.34 | $262.67 | +$126.33 | 55% 17472-14100 (31572) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 41.6¢ | $109.19 | $262.67 | +$153.49 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 63¢ | $27.15 | — | -$27.15 | |
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100 | Downavg 58¢ | $27.3 | — | -$27.3 | 57% 70079-53264 (123343) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Downavg 74.2¢ | $34.29 | — | -$23.28 | 65% 22059-12128 (34187) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Downavg 73¢ | $18.3 | — | -$18.3 | 56% 57694-44567 (102261) |
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100 | Downavg 81¢ | $11.64 | — | -$11.64 | 63% 51408-30257 (81665) |
KA
Kathod-Shi-14ARB<$100Invested
$136.34
Value
$262.67
PnL
+$126.33
Record
55%
17472-14100 (31572)
Both legs:
Up$109.1941.6¢+$153.49
Down$27.1563¢-$27.15
UN
uninformedflowwCTR<$100Invested
$27.3
Value
—
PnL
-$27.3
Record
57%
70079-53264 (123343)
AA
aaa221CTR<$100Invested
$34.29
Value
—
PnL
-$23.28
Record
65%
22059-12128 (34187)
0X
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100Invested
$18.3
Value
—
PnL
-$18.3
Record
56%
57694-44567 (102261)
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100Invested
$11.64
Value
—
PnL
-$11.64
Record
63%
51408-30257 (81665)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0xa84b9892...b7943b
Slug
bnb-updown-15m-1793245500