Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (74%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Blue mega-tsunami in 2026?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 26¢ · $846 held · ends Jan 5, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$846.47
$189.38
19.3¢ → 26¢
+35% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 26%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 74%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 91%
Freshness
Late
65h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TH The Spirit of Ukraine>UMACTR | Yesavg 21.5¢ | $340.87 | $447.2 | +$106.34 | 66% 723-371 (1094) |
AJ AJSV | Noavg 86.2¢ | $188.19 | $166.04 | -$22.15 | 36% 12900-22608 (35508) |
LO Loyalty-CrashCTR<$100 | Yesavg 12¢ | $24.83 | $94.37 | +$69.53 | 62% 45-28 (73) |
 StarMaster<$100 | Noavg 73¢ | $79.61 | $88.33 | +$1.09 | 53% 1765-1559 (3324) |
 RememberAmalekCTR<$100 | Yesavg 13¢ | $15.96 | $50.53 | +$34.57 | 56% 951-745 (1696) |
Invested
$340.87
Value
$447.2
PnL
+$106.34
Record
66%
723-371 (1094)
Invested
$188.19
Value
$166.04
PnL
-$22.15
Record
36%
12900-22608 (35508)
Invested
$24.83
Value
$94.37
PnL
+$69.53
Record
62%
45-28 (73)
StarMaster<$100Invested
$79.61
Value
$88.33
PnL
+$1.09
Record
53%
1765-1559 (3324)
RememberAmalekCTR<$100Invested
$15.96
Value
$50.53
PnL
+$34.57
Record
56%
951-745 (1696)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
26.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.