MSV Duisburg vs. VfB Stuttgart II: O/U 4.5
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (40%) · Over at 100¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Over
5
Over 40%
$1.1K
$39.43
73.8¢ → 100¢
+35% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Overavg 75¢ | $764.03 | $942.61 | +$178.58 | 59% 45816-32172 (77988) |
RO Rocko33 | Overavg 66¢ | $99 | $121.5 | +$22.5 | 63% 1114-643 (1757) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Underavg 25¢ | $112.62 | $2.25 | -$110.37 | 50% 25098-24836 (49934) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Underavg 37¢ | $0.74 | $0.38 | -$0.36 | 49% 7973-8309 (16282) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Underavg 34¢ | $51 | $0.08 | -$50.93 | 59% 10176-7169 (17345) |
Invested
$764.03
Value
$942.61
PnL
+$178.58
Record
59%
45816-32172 (77988)
Invested
$99
Value
$121.5
PnL
+$22.5
Record
63%
1114-643 (1757)
Invested
$112.62
Value
$2.25
PnL
-$110.37
Record
50%
25098-24836 (49934)
Invested
$0.74
Value
$0.38
PnL
-$0.36
Record
49%
7973-8309 (16282)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$51
Value
$0.08
PnL
-$50.93
Record
59%
10176-7169 (17345)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.