Will FC Viktoria Cologne win on 2026-10-31?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 52¢ · $787 held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
$787.03
$61.63
52.8¢ → 52¢
-1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 52%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 55¢ | $329.99 | $359.99 | +$30 | 58% 41902-30424 (72326) |
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 50.4¢ | $223.78 | $230.88 | +$7.1 | 59% 45810-32163 (77973) |
LE LeLynxMalynx | Noavg 51.9¢ | $164.08 | $189.6 | +$25.52 | 58% 28689-21179 (49868) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 46¢ | $7.55 | $6.56 | -$0.98 | 53% 4616-4152 (8768) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$329.99
Value
$359.99
PnL
+$30
Record
58%
41902-30424 (72326)
Invested
$223.78
Value
$230.88
PnL
+$7.1
Record
59%
45810-32163 (77973)
Invested
$164.08
Value
$189.6
PnL
+$25.52
Record
58%
28689-21179 (49868)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$7.55
Value
$6.56
PnL
-$0.98
Record
53%
4616-4152 (8768)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.