Spread: FC Ingolstadt 04 (-2.5)

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold TSV Havelse (50%) · TSV Havelse at 99¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 31

FC Ingolstadt 04<1¢TSV Havelse>99¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

TSV Havelse

Consensus Traders

TSV Havelse 50%

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

$151.75

Smart Money Entry

85.3¢ → 99.3¢

+16% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralTSV Havelse at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

TSV Havelse

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

FC Ingolstadt 041%

TSV Havelse99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

TSV Havelse3 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,163

Combined PnL+$144.98

FC Ingolstadt 043 traders

Total Value$16.81

Total Shares156

Combined PnL+$6.77

TSV Havelse — 50%FC Ingolstadt 04 — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on TSV Havelse. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleTSV Havelse 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrFC Ingolstadt 04 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000FC Ingolstadt 04 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	TSV Havelseavg 84.9¢	$824.27	$960.69	+$136.42	50% 25098-24836 (49934)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	TSV Havelseavg 84¢	$94.87	$98.26	+$3.39	58% 28695-21181 (49876)
UP UpTheBlues<$100	TSV Havelseavg 92¢	$73.04	$78.21	+$5.17	59% 45816-32172 (77988)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	FC Ingolstadt 04avg 6¢	$6	$12	+$6	49% 7973-8309 (16282)
poshposhCTR<$100	FC Ingolstadt 04avg 5¢	$1.89	$4.52	+$2.64	59% 10176-7169 (17345)
HRTradingCTR<$100	FC Ingolstadt 04avg 11.5¢	$2.15	$0.28	-$1.87	53% 4633-4164 (8797)

GoalLineGhost

TSV Havelse

Invested

$824.27

Value

$960.69

PnL

+$136.42

Record

50%

25098-24836 (49934)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

TSV Havelse

Invested

$94.87

Value

$98.26

PnL

+$3.39

Record

58%

28695-21181 (49876)

UpTheBlues<$100

TSV Havelse

Invested

$73.04

Value

$78.21

PnL

+$5.17

Record

59%

45816-32172 (77988)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

FC Ingolstadt 04

Invested

Value

$12

PnL

+$6

Record

49%

7973-8309 (16282)

poshposhCTR<$100

FC Ingolstadt 04

Invested

$1.89

Value

$4.52

PnL

+$2.64

Record

59%

10176-7169 (17345)

HRTradingCTR<$100

FC Ingolstadt 04

Invested

$2.15

Value

$0.28

PnL

-$1.87

Record

53%

4633-4164 (8797)

Research grade

NeutralTSV Havelse at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

TSV Havelse

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on TSV Havelse. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleTSV Havelse 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrFC Ingolstadt 04 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000FC Ingolstadt 04 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that TSV Havelse wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.