Will Rot-Weiss Essen win on 2026-11-01?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 51¢ · $831 held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 50%
1 arb excluded
$831.34
$28.26
47.4¢ → 50.5¢
+7% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 51%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NO Notradecopy | Noavg 47¢ | $350.88 | $365.81 | +$26.13 | 49% 3938-4123 (8061) |
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542 | Noavg 48¢ | $240 | $245 | +$2.5 | 47% 2571-2857 (5428) |
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100 | Noavg 49.4¢ | $206.07 | $204.99 | +$0.18 | 57% 29212-21600 (50812) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 49.4¢ | $124.07 | $122.99 | +$0.18 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 50¢ | $82 | $82 | +$0 | |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Yesavg 50¢ | $10.64 | $10.53 | -$0.11 | 59% 46853-33124 (79977) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Yesavg 50¢ | $20 | $5 | -$0.26 | 58% 42636-31031 (73667) |
Invested
$350.88
Value
$365.81
PnL
+$26.13
Record
49%
3938-4123 (8061)
Invested
$240
Value
$245
PnL
+$2.5
Record
47%
2571-2857 (5428)
Invested
$206.07
Value
$204.99
PnL
+$0.18
Record
57%
29212-21600 (50812)
Both legs:
Invested
$10.64
Value
$10.53
PnL
-$0.11
Record
59%
46853-33124 (79977)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$20
Value
$5
PnL
-$0.26
Record
58%
42636-31031 (73667)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.