Will VfL Osnabrück win on 2026-10-31?
5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 100¢ · $19K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 56%
1 arb excluded
$19.3K
$413.6
96.2¢ → 99.6¢
+4% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 9 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MO Momo63 | Noavg 95.8¢ | $15.1K | $15.5K | +$370.22 | 93% 855-61 (916) |
 RN1 | Noavg 98.1¢ | $3.4K | $3.4K | +$49.88 | 54% 56596-48765 (105361) |
 oieshfn345ARB<$100 | Noavg 91.6¢ | $235.31 | $211.35 | -$23.96 | 57% 1719-1292 (3011) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 91.6¢ | $181.46 | $161.37 | -$20.09 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 19.9¢ | $53.85 | $49.98 | -$3.87 | |
LI LilybaeumCTR | Yesavg 6.9¢ | $100.96 | $95.8 | -$5.16 | 62% 13706-8571 (22277) |
RO Rocky31<$100 | Noavg 94¢ | $68.93 | $68.56 | -$0.37 | 74% 1592-569 (2161) |
CA Cannae<$100 | Noavg 81¢ | $26.18 | $26.34 | +$0.16 | 53% 15954-14130 (30084) |
FO fooooolCTR<$100 | Yesavg 7¢ | $24.99 | $23.21 | -$1.78 | 50% 10864-10681 (21545) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $1.87 | $1.86 | -$0 | 53% 4616-4152 (8768) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Yesavg 17¢ | $1.7 | $1.85 | +$0.15 | 58% 41902-30424 (72326) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 7¢ | $7 | $0.5 | +$0.5 | 49% 7958-8291 (16249) |
Invested
$15,086.44
Value
$15.5K
PnL
+$370.22
Record
93%
855-61 (916)
RN1Invested
$3,392.12
Value
$3.4K
PnL
+$49.88
Record
54%
56596-48765 (105361)
oieshfn345ARB<$100Invested
$235.31
Value
$211.35
PnL
-$23.96
Record
57%
1719-1292 (3011)
Both legs:
Invested
$100.96
Value
$95.8
PnL
-$5.16
Record
62%
13706-8571 (22277)
Invested
$68.93
Value
$68.56
PnL
-$0.37
Record
74%
1592-569 (2161)
Invested
$26.18
Value
$26.34
PnL
+$0.16
Record
53%
15954-14130 (30084)
Invested
$24.99
Value
$23.21
PnL
-$1.78
Record
50%
10864-10681 (21545)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$1.87
Value
$1.86
PnL
-$0
Record
53%
4616-4152 (8768)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$1.7
Value
$1.85
PnL
+$0.15
Record
58%
41902-30424 (72326)
Invested
$7
Value
$0.5
PnL
+$0.5
Record
49%
7958-8291 (16249)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.