VfL Wolfsburg vs. VfL Osnabrück: O/U 4.5
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (75%) · Under at 89¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Under
4
Under 75%
$1.1K
$150.59
74.8¢ → 89¢
+19% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 89%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 76.4¢ | $656.94 | $765.4 | +$108.46 | 59% 45816-32172 (77988) |
 VeryLucky888 | Underavg 71¢ | $213 | $267 | +$34.5 | 58% 41916-30432 (72348) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Underavg 70¢ | $31.5 | $40.05 | +$8.55 | 58% 28695-21181 (49876) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Overavg 29¢ | $4.86 | $3.94 | -$0.92 | 53% 4633-4164 (8797) |
Invested
$656.94
Value
$765.4
PnL
+$108.46
Record
59%
45816-32172 (77988)
VeryLucky888Invested
$213
Value
$267
PnL
+$34.5
Record
58%
41916-30432 (72348)
Invested
$31.5
Value
$40.05
PnL
+$8.55
Record
58%
28695-21181 (49876)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$4.86
Value
$3.94
PnL
-$0.92
Record
53%
4633-4164 (8797)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
89.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.