Spread: VfL Wolfsburg (-1.5)

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold VfL Wolfsburg (80%) · VfL Wolfsburg at 87¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 31

VfL Wolfsburg87¢VfL Osnabrück13¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

VfL Wolfsburg

Consensus Traders

VfL Wolfsburg 80%

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

-$764.2

Smart Money Entry

41.5¢ → 86.5¢

+109% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralVfL Wolfsburg at 87%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

VfL Wolfsburg

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

VfL Wolfsburg87%

VfL Osnabrück14%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

VfL Wolfsburg4 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares3,795

Combined PnL-$140.26

VfL Osnabrück1 trader

Total Value$280.81

Total Shares1,702

Combined PnL-$623.94

VfL Wolfsburg — 80%VfL Osnabrück — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542	VfL Wolfsburgavg 41¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	-$148.8	47% 2505-2803 (5308)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	VfL Osnabrückavg 53.2¢	$904.75	$280.81	-$623.94	50% 25095-24835 (49930)
UP UpTheBlues<$100	VfL Wolfsburgavg 62¢	$35.02	$46.89	+$11.88	59% 45810-32163 (77973)
HRTrading<$100	VfL Wolfsburgavg 88¢	$15.68	$12.34	-$3.34	53% 4616-4152 (8768)
AR ARocky33<$100	VfL Wolfsburgavg 37¢	$1.85	$1.85	+$0	76% 4051-1277 (5328)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542

VfL Wolfsburg

Invested

$1,525.2

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$148.8

Record

47%

2505-2803 (5308)

GoalLineGhostCTR

VfL Osnabrück

Invested

$904.75

Value

$280.81

PnL

-$623.94

Record

50%

25095-24835 (49930)

UpTheBlues<$100

VfL Wolfsburg

Invested

$35.02

Value

$46.89

PnL

+$11.88

Record

59%

45810-32163 (77973)

HRTrading<$100

VfL Wolfsburg

Invested

$15.68

Value

$12.34

PnL

-$3.34

Record

53%

4616-4152 (8768)

ARocky33<$100

VfL Wolfsburg

Invested

$1.85

Value

$1.85

PnL

+$0

Record

76%

4051-1277 (5328)

Research grade

NeutralVfL Wolfsburg at 87%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

VfL Wolfsburg

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that VfL Wolfsburg wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance88.0%

86.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$13.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

113.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.