Will VfL Wolfsburg vs. VfL Osnabrück end in a draw?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 97¢ · $11 held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 50%
$10.73
$0.61
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 oieshfn345<$100 | Noavg 84¢ | $7.14 | $7 | +$1.01 | 57% 1719-1292 (3011) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 95.3¢ | $3.64 | $3.42 | -$0.23 | 53% 4633-4164 (8797) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 7¢ | $0.37 | $0.16 | -$0.21 | 49% 7973-8309 (16282) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.2¢ | $0.11 | $0.15 | +$0.04 | 50% 33398-32968 (66366) |
oieshfn345<$100Invested
$7.14
Value
$7
PnL
+$1.01
Record
57%
1719-1292 (3011)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$3.64
Value
$3.42
PnL
-$0.23
Record
53%
4633-4164 (8797)
Invested
$0.37
Value
$0.16
PnL
-$0.21
Record
49%
7973-8309 (16282)
Invested
$0.11
Value
$0.15
PnL
+$0.04
Record
50%
33398-32968 (66366)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.