SV Darmstadt 98 vs. 1. FC Magdeburg: O/U 3.5

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (43%) · Under at 86¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 31

Over14¢Under86¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 43%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.4K

Combined PnL

$463.49

Smart Money Entry

71.2¢ → 86¢

+21% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 86%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 7 top traders (43%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over14%

Under86%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$4.2K

Total Shares5,040

Combined PnL+$630.77

Over4 traders

Total Value$245.75

Total Shares2,119

Combined PnL-$167.28

Under — 43%Over — 57%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 71.9¢	$3.4K	$4.0K	+$665.16	59% 45810-32163 (77973)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Overavg 37.1¢	$1.3K	$829.8	-$430.04	50% 25095-24835 (49930)
└ Over leg	Overavg 37.1¢	$1.1K	$549.44	-$523.46
└ Under leg	Underavg 54¢	$186.95	$280.37	+$93.42
RN1CTR	Overavg 19.9¢	$347.68	$183.76	-$163.92	54% 56596-48765 (105361)
VeryLucky888	Underavg 60.9¢	$198	$162.5	-$35.5	58% 41902-30424 (72326)
FO fooooolARB<$100	Overavg 45.4¢	$80.02	$81.64	+$1.62	50% 10864-10681 (21545)
└ Over leg	Overavg 45.4¢	$49.88	$48.84	-$1.04
└ Under leg	Underavg 51¢	$30.14	$32.8	+$2.66
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Overavg 49¢	$24.01	$24.26	+$0.24	49% 19156-19549 (38705)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Overavg 13.5¢	$27	$21	-$6	49% 7958-8291 (16249)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 12¢	$14.34	$16.73	+$2.39	49% 12639-13031 (25670)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Underavg 84¢	$11.65	$12.76	+$1.11	50% 33395-32964 (66359)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$3,377.68

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$665.16

Record

59%

45810-32163 (77973)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,259.84

Value

$829.8

PnL

-$430.04

Record

50%

25095-24835 (49930)

Both legs:

Over$1,072.937.1¢-$523.46

Under$186.9554¢+$93.42

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$347.68

Value

$183.76

PnL

-$163.92

Record

54%

56596-48765 (105361)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$198

Value

$162.5

PnL

-$35.5

Record

58%

41902-30424 (72326)

fooooolARB<$100

Over

Invested

$80.02

Value

$81.64

PnL

+$1.62

Record

50%

10864-10681 (21545)

Both legs:

Over$49.8845.4¢-$1.04

Under$30.1451¢+$2.66

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$24.01

Value

$24.26

PnL

+$0.24

Record

49%

19156-19549 (38705)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$27

Value

$21

PnL

-$6

Record

49%

7958-8291 (16249)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$14.34

Value

$16.73

PnL

+$2.39

Record

49%

12639-13031 (25670)

SnakeBall<$100

Under

Invested

$11.65

Value

$12.76

PnL

+$1.11

Record

50%

33395-32964 (66359)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 86%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 7 top traders (43%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance87.6%

86.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$14.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

114.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.