Will SV Darmstadt 98 win on 2026-10-31?

8 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 68¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 31

Yes33¢No67¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$2.2K

Combined PnL

-$61.4

Smart Money Entry

70.1¢ → 67.5¢

-4% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 68%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 12 top traders (67%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes33%

No68%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares2,550

Combined PnL-$33.71

Yes4 traders

Total Value$431.14

Total Shares1,149

Combined PnL-$27.69

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (5 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542	Noavg 66¢	$584.31	$593.16	+$22.13	47% 2505-2803 (5308)
oieshfn345	Noavg 67.3¢	$510.63	$523.18	+$12.55	57% 1719-1292 (3011)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Yesavg 32.1¢	$422.44	$394.36	-$28.09	59% 45810-32163 (77973)
FO foooool	Noavg 86¢	$400.61	$321.51	-$79.11	50% 10864-10681 (21545)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 67¢	$245.49	$243.72	-$1.78	50% 25095-24835 (49930)
RN1<$100	Noavg 66.3¢	$35.07	$45.77	+$10.69	54% 56596-48765 (105361)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Yesavg 31¢	$25.42	$25.42	-$0	58% 28689-21179 (49868)
LI Lilybaeum<$100	Noavg 67¢	$20.66	$20.69	+$0.03	62% 13706-8571 (22277)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Yesavg 31¢	$9.81	$9.81	-$0	53% 15954-14130 (30084)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Noavg 54¢	$7.56	$9.31	+$1.75	49% 7958-8291 (16249)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 66.1¢	$2.51	$2.53	+$0.02	53% 4616-4152 (8768)
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100	Yesavg 23¢	$1.15	$1.55	+$0.4	58% 18650-13710 (32360)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542

Invested

$584.31

Value

$593.16

PnL

+$22.13

Record

47%

2505-2803 (5308)

oieshfn345

Invested

$510.63

Value

$523.18

PnL

+$12.55

Record

57%

1719-1292 (3011)

UpTheBluesCTR

Yes

Invested

$422.44

Value

$394.36

PnL

-$28.09

Record

59%

45810-32163 (77973)

foooool

Invested

$400.61

Value

$321.51

PnL

-$79.11

Record

50%

10864-10681 (21545)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$245.49

Value

$243.72

PnL

-$1.78

Record

50%

25095-24835 (49930)

RN1<$100

Invested

$35.07

Value

$45.77

PnL

+$10.69

Record

54%

56596-48765 (105361)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$25.42

Value

$25.42

PnL

-$0

Record

58%

28689-21179 (49868)

Lilybaeum<$100

Invested

$20.66

Value

$20.69

PnL

+$0.03

Record

62%

13706-8571 (22277)

CannaeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.81

Value

$9.81

PnL

-$0

Record

53%

15954-14130 (30084)

topdogbigboi<$100

Invested

$7.56

Value

$9.31

PnL

+$1.75

Record

49%

7958-8291 (16249)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$2.51

Value

$2.53

PnL

+$0.02

Record

53%

4616-4152 (8768)

BillBenter2026CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.15

Value

$1.55

PnL

+$0.4

Record

58%

18650-13710 (32360)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 68%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 12 top traders (67%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (5 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance69.6%

67.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$43.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

143.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.