Will 1. FC Magdeburg win on 2026-10-31?

13 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold No (81%) · No at 64¢ · $27K held · ended Oct 31

Yes37¢No63¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 81%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$26.7K

Combined PnL

-$862.04

Smart Money Entry

58¢ → 63.5¢

+10% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 64%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 16 top traders (81%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes37%

No64%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$9.1K

Total Shares21,109

Combined PnL-$91.55

No13 traders

Total Value$13.7K

Total Shares24,404

Combined PnL-$770.49

Yes — 19%No — 81%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 86% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FR fraagenCTR	Yesavg 42.9¢	$9.0K	$9.0K	-$93.62	45% 55-67 (122)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542	Noavg 57¢	$4.0K	$3.9K	-$105	47% 2505-2803 (5308)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Noavg 59¢	$3.5K	$3.5K	+$58.84	50% 25095-24835 (49930)
└ No leg	Noavg 59¢	$2.6K	$2.8K	+$198.25
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 43.2¢	$904.56	$765.16	-$139.41
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3	Noavg 57¢	$3.2K	$3.2K	+$28.37	50% 2512-2496 (5008)
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 57.5¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	-$34.39	59% 45810-32163 (77973)
RN1	Noavg 62.5¢	$1.6K	$1.5K	-$98.82	54% 56596-48765 (105361)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 57.8¢	$1.6K	$1.0K	-$564.47	50% 33395-32964 (66359)
CA Cannae	Noavg 57.6¢	$978.93	$968.94	-$9.98	53% 15954-14130 (30084)
LI Lilybaeum	Noavg 62.9¢	$552.65	$558.22	+$5.57	62% 13706-8571 (22277)
oieshfn345ARB<$100	Yesavg 43.9¢	$448.09	$403.82	-$44.28	57% 1719-1292 (3011)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 43.9¢	$269.8	$224.11	-$45.69
└ No leg	Noavg 63¢	$178.29	$179.71	+$1.42
FO foooool	Noavg 63¢	$173.25	$174.63	+$1.38	50% 10864-10681 (21545)
LE LeLynxMalynx	Noavg 57¢	$134.52	$134.52	+$0	58% 28689-21179 (49868)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Yesavg 21.9¢	$24.01	$32.68	+$8.67	49% 7958-8291 (16249)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 59.6¢	$28.17	$30	+$1.83	53% 4616-4152 (8768)
poshposh<$100	Noavg 64¢	$26.76	$28.65	+$1.88	59% 10160-7156 (17316)
SP spyGoodLuck77CTR<$100	Yesavg 59.5¢	$23.8	$17.2	-$6.6	63% 1765-1049 (2814)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Noavg 43¢	$3.65	$5	+$1.35	58% 18650-13710 (32360)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Noavg 34¢	$2.06	$3.85	+$1.79	49% 12639-13031 (25670)

fraagenCTR

Yes

Invested

$9,018.64

Value

$9.0K

PnL

-$93.62

Record

45%

55-67 (122)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542

Invested

$3,990

Value

$3.9K

PnL

-$105

Record

47%

2505-2803 (5308)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Invested

$3,481.4

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$58.84

Record

50%

25095-24835 (49930)

Both legs:

No$2,576.8459¢+$198.25

Yes$904.5643.2¢-$139.41

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3

Invested

$3,234.2

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$28.37

Record

50%

2512-2496 (5008)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$2,215.45

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$34.39

Record

59%

45810-32163 (77973)

RN1

Invested

$1,551.6

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$98.82

Record

54%

56596-48765 (105361)

SnakeBall

Invested

$1,606.21

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$564.47

Record

50%

33395-32964 (66359)

Cannae

Invested

$978.93

Value

$968.94

PnL

-$9.98

Record

53%

15954-14130 (30084)

Lilybaeum

Invested

$552.65

Value

$558.22

PnL

+$5.57

Record

62%

13706-8571 (22277)

oieshfn345ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$448.09

Value

$403.82

PnL

-$44.28

Record

57%

1719-1292 (3011)

Both legs:

Yes$269.843.9¢-$45.69

No$178.2963¢+$1.42

foooool

Invested

$173.25

Value

$174.63

PnL

+$1.38

Record

50%

10864-10681 (21545)

LeLynxMalynx

Invested

$134.52

Value

$134.52

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

28689-21179 (49868)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$24.01

Value

$32.68

PnL

+$8.67

Record

49%

7958-8291 (16249)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$28.17

Value

$30

PnL

+$1.83

Record

53%

4616-4152 (8768)

poshposh<$100

Invested

$26.76

Value

$28.65

PnL

+$1.88

Record

59%

10160-7156 (17316)

spyGoodLuck77CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$23.8

Value

$17.2

PnL

-$6.6

Record

63%

1765-1049 (2814)

BillBenter2026<$100

Invested

$3.65

Value

PnL

+$1.35

Record

58%

18650-13710 (32360)

LuckyLoo<$100

Invested

$2.06

Value

$3.85

PnL

+$1.79

Record

49%

12639-13031 (25670)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 64%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 16 top traders (81%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 86% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance65.6%

63.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$52.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

152.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.