Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (70%). 4 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will SV Darmstadt 98 vs. 1. FC Magdeburg end in a draw?

4 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (36%) · No at 31¢ · $936 held · ended Oct 31

Yes70¢No30¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 36%

Total Value

$936.39

Combined PnL

-$94.31

Smart Money Entry

57.2¢ → 30.5¢

-47% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 31%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 11 top traders (36%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 70%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes70%

No31%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes7 traders

Total Value$513.92

Total Shares912

Combined PnL+$125.22

No4 traders

Total Value$422.47

Total Shares1,100

Combined PnL-$219.53

Yes — 64%No — 36%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Yesavg 34.9¢	$204	$312.84	+$108.84	59% 45810-32163 (77973)
oieshfn345CTR	Noavg 60.2¢	$425.21	$220.9	-$204.31	57% 1719-1292 (3011)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Noavg 51¢	$176.5	$169.54	-$6.95	50% 25095-24835 (49930)
US User7429	Yesavg 64¢	$135.02	$146.62	+$11.6	55% 8303-6696 (14999)
FO foooool<$100	Yesavg 36¢	$24.93	$24.58	-$0.35	50% 10864-10681 (21545)
LI LilybaeumCTR<$100	Noavg 67¢	$16.24	$16.61	+$0.36	62% 13706-8571 (22277)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Noavg 54.4¢	$24.05	$15.42	-$8.63	49% 7958-8291 (16249)
tradecraft<$100	Yesavg 63¢	$13.33	$14.71	+$1.38	51% 6003-5696 (11699)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Yesavg 50.7¢	$7.6	$10.42	+$2.82	58% 18650-13710 (32360)
RN1<$100	Yesavg 46¢	$2.43	$3.33	+$0.9	54% 56596-48765 (105361)
VeryLucky888<$100	Yesavg 25¢	$1.39	$1.42	+$0.03	58% 41902-30424 (72326)

UpTheBlues

Yes

Invested

$204

Value

$312.84

PnL

+$108.84

Record

59%

45810-32163 (77973)

oieshfn345CTR

Invested

$425.21

Value

$220.9

PnL

-$204.31

Record

57%

1719-1292 (3011)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Invested

$176.5

Value

$169.54

PnL

-$6.95

Record

50%

25095-24835 (49930)

User7429

Yes

Invested

$135.02

Value

$146.62

PnL

+$11.6

Record

55%

8303-6696 (14999)

foooool<$100

Yes

Invested

$24.93

Value

$24.58

PnL

-$0.35

Record

50%

10864-10681 (21545)

LilybaeumCTR<$100

Invested

$16.24

Value

$16.61

PnL

+$0.36

Record

62%

13706-8571 (22277)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Invested

$24.05

Value

$15.42

PnL

-$8.63

Record

49%

7958-8291 (16249)

tradecraft<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.33

Value

$14.71

PnL

+$1.38

Record

51%

6003-5696 (11699)

BillBenter2026<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.6

Value

$10.42

PnL

+$2.82

Record

58%

18650-13710 (32360)

RN1<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.43

Value

$3.33

PnL

+$0.9

Record

54%

56596-48765 (105361)

VeryLucky888<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.39

Value

$1.42

PnL

+$0.03

Record

58%

41902-30424 (72326)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 31%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 11 top traders (36%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 70%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance32.6%

30.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$206.95

Max Loss

-$100.00

306.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.