Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (74%). 3 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. 1. FC Nürnberg: O/U 3.5

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (43%) · Over at 27¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 1

Over27¢Under73¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 43%

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

$239.61

Smart Money Entry

29.6¢ → 26.5¢

-11% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 27%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Under 74%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over27%

Under74%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares4,659

Combined PnL+$243.87

Under4 traders

Total Value$59.33

Total Shares102

Combined PnL-$4.26

Over — 43%Under — 57%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Overavg 29.6¢	$1.3K	$1.6K	+$243.17	50% 25648-25477 (51125)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 27¢	$39.56	$40.26	+$0.7	49% 13013-13570 (26583)
FO foooool<$100	Underavg 71.3¢	$39.22	$35.22	-$4	50% 11176-10983 (22159)
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388<$100	Underavg 66¢	$19.54	$18.98	-$0.56	55% 1777-1466 (3243)
LA LaarsYCTR<$100	Overavg 52¢	$10.83	$10.83	+$0	51% 3435-3353 (6788)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Underavg 50.2¢	$3.55	$3.61	+$0.06	48% 8942-9563 (18505)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 43¢	$1.29	$1.53	+$0.24	53% 5610-5034 (10644)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Over

Invested

$1,332.08

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$243.17

Record

50%

25648-25477 (51125)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$39.56

Value

$40.26

PnL

+$0.7

Record

49%

13013-13570 (26583)

foooool<$100

Under

Invested

$39.22

Value

$35.22

PnL

-$4

Record

50%

11176-10983 (22159)

VD721lsj4938Dk388<$100

Under

Invested

$19.54

Value

$18.98

PnL

-$0.56

Record

55%

1777-1466 (3243)

LaarsYCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$10.83

Value

$10.83

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

3435-3353 (6788)

topdogbigboi<$100

Under

Invested

$3.55

Value

$3.61

PnL

+$0.06

Record

48%

8942-9563 (18505)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$1.29

Value

$1.53

PnL

+$0.24

Record

53%

5610-5034 (10644)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 27%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Under 74%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance28.5%

26.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$250.92

Max Loss

-$100.00

350.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.