FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. 1. FC Nürnberg: O/U 1.5
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (60%) · Over at 100¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Over
5
Over 60%
$1.3K
$30.61
84.8¢ → 100¢
+18% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 fxwd12345 | Overavg 85.1¢ | $1.1K | $1.2K | +$87.98 | 69% 1525-701 (2226) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Overavg 79¢ | $59.51 | $70.81 | +$1.13 | 58% 42674-31054 (73728) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Overavg 99.9¢ | $5.15 | $4.69 | -$0.46 | 53% 5610-5034 (10644) |
FO fooooolCTR<$100 | Underavg 12.7¢ | $2.55 | $1.66 | -$0.88 | 50% 11176-10983 (22159) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Underavg 17¢ | $57.33 | $0.17 | -$57.16 | 59% 46883-33151 (80034) |
fxwd12345Invested
$1,134.38
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$87.98
Record
69%
1525-701 (2226)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$59.51
Value
$70.81
PnL
+$1.13
Record
58%
42674-31054 (73728)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$5.15
Value
$4.69
PnL
-$0.46
Record
53%
5610-5034 (10644)
Invested
$2.55
Value
$1.66
PnL
-$0.88
Record
50%
11176-10983 (22159)
Invested
$57.33
Value
$0.17
PnL
-$57.16
Record
59%
46883-33151 (80034)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.