Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (65%). 5 of 14 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will FC St. Pauli 1910 win on 2026-11-01?

5 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (36%) · Yes at 36¢ · $11K held · ended Nov 1

Yes36¢No64¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 36%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.8K

Combined PnL

$-1.9K

Smart Money Entry

44.2¢ → 35.5¢

-20% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 36%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 14 top traders (36%)Underdog side (market favors No 65%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes36%

No65%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$4.0K

Total Shares5,706

Combined PnL+$773.95

Yes5 traders

Total Value$3.5K

Total Shares14,045

Combined PnL$-2.7K

No — 64%Yes — 36%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-27 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

30% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrNo 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 70% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
us391	Noavg 54¢	$2.3K	$3.1K	+$769.54	51% 1712-1674 (3386)
oieshfn345ARB<$100	Noavg 69¢	$2.9K	$2.8K	-$582.74	57% 1814-1366 (3180)
└ No leg	Noavg 69¢	$2.1K	$1.9K	-$229.9
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 34.5¢	$786.43	$878.59	-$352.84
KY Kyn008CTR	Yesavg 44¢	$4.0K	$2.1K	$-1.9K	49% 257-266 (523)
ZH zhuz632CTR	Yesavg 46¢	$1.9K	$1.1K	-$841.48	50% 246-244 (490)
JO JoeytheReal	Noavg 65¢	$650	$645	-$5	48% 423-451 (874)
RN1ARB<$100	Yesavg 32¢	$575.98	$572.61	-$3.37	54% 57146-49404 (106550)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 32¢	$448.79	$427.69	-$21.09
└ No leg	Noavg 61¢	$127.19	$144.91	+$17.72
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 36.9¢	$235.51	$226.83	-$8.69	50% 25648-25477 (51125)
FO foooool	Noavg 77.7¢	$147.56	$130.15	-$17.41	50% 11176-10983 (22159)
CA Cannae<$100	Noavg 52.9¢	$50.83	$69.14	+$18.31	53% 16115-14278 (30393)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Noavg 60.5¢	$44.43	$45.92	+$1.48	48% 8942-9563 (18505)
BE BetzikoCTR<$100	Yesavg 39¢	$39	$31.5	-$7.5	54% 6424-5410 (11834)
poshposh<$100	Noavg 60¢	$17.13	$19.56	+$2.43	58% 10657-7637 (18294)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 68¢	$16.25	$19.52	+$3.28	53% 5610-5034 (10644)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Yesavg 41¢	$14.35	$18.2	+$3.85	57% 29226-21613 (50839)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100	Noavg 54¢	$5.4	$7.2	+$1.85	51% 1526-1478 (3004)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Noavg 79¢	$3.95	$3.43	-$0.52	58% 18782-13844 (32626)

us391

Invested

$2,308.62

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$769.54

Record

51%

1712-1674 (3386)

oieshfn345ARB<$100

Invested

$2,892.76

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$582.74

Record

57%

1814-1366 (3180)

Both legs:

No$2,106.3369¢-$229.9

Yes$786.4334.5¢-$352.84

Kyn008CTR

Yes

Invested

$3,975.87

Value

$2.1K

PnL

$-1.9K

Record

49%

257-266 (523)

zhuz632CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,933.45

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$841.48

Record

50%

246-244 (490)

JoeytheReal

Invested

$650

Value

$645

PnL

-$5

Record

48%

423-451 (874)

RN1ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$575.98

Value

$572.61

PnL

-$3.37

Record

54%

57146-49404 (106550)

Both legs:

Invested

$235.51

Value

$226.83

PnL

-$8.69

Record

50%

25648-25477 (51125)

foooool

Invested

$147.56

Value

$130.15

PnL

-$17.41

Record

50%

11176-10983 (22159)

Cannae<$100

Invested

$50.83

Value

$69.14

PnL

+$18.31

Record

53%

16115-14278 (30393)

topdogbigboi<$100

Invested

$44.43

Value

$45.92

PnL

+$1.48

Record

48%

8942-9563 (18505)

BetzikoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$39

Value

$31.5

PnL

-$7.5

Record

54%

6424-5410 (11834)

poshposh<$100

Invested

$17.13

Value

$19.56

PnL

+$2.43

Record

58%

10657-7637 (18294)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$16.25

Value

$19.52

PnL

+$3.28

Record

53%

5610-5034 (10644)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.35

Value

$18.2

PnL

+$3.85

Record

57%

29226-21613 (50839)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100

Invested

$5.4

Value

$7.2

PnL

+$1.85

Record

51%

1526-1478 (3004)

BillBenter2026<$100

Invested

$3.95

Value

$3.43

PnL

-$0.52

Record

58%

18782-13844 (32626)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 36%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 14 top traders (36%)Underdog side (market favors No 65%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-27 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

30% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrNo 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 70% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance37.7%

35.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$165.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

265.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.