Will 1. FC Nürnberg win on 2026-11-01?
3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (38%) · No at 64¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 38%
1 arb excluded
$5.9K
-$34.11
65¢ → 63.5¢
-2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 64%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 8 top traders (38%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KY Kyn008 | Noavg 70¢ | $1.7K | $1.8K | +$60.69 | 49% 255-266 (521) |
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Noavg 68.2¢ | $1.9K | $1.7K | -$374.85 | 50% 25644-25471 (51115) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 68.2¢ | $1.2K | $1.1K | -$258.43 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 42.6¢ | $695.71 | $579.3 | -$116.42 | |
 oieshfn345 | Noavg 57.6¢ | $1.1K | $1.2K | +$36.33 | 57% 1814-1366 (3180) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Yesavg 30.8¢ | $1.1K | $1.0K | -$115.06 | 59% 46876-33139 (80015) |
NA NatoAlfistaCTR | Yesavg 30¢ | $169.17 | $169.17 | -$14.1 | 50% 3943-3929 (7872) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Noavg 53¢ | $26.24 | $26.49 | +$0.25 | 49% 13009-13568 (26577) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 42.6¢ | $15.75 | $13.88 | -$1.88 | 53% 5597-5025 (10622) |
CA CannaeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 30¢ | $4.93 | $4.93 | -$0.41 | 53% 16112-14276 (30388) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 39¢ | $0.64 | $0.7 | +$0.07 | 48% 8937-9552 (18489) |
Invested
$1,699.33
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$60.69
Record
49%
255-266 (521)
Invested
$1,896.81
Value
$1.7K
PnL
-$374.85
Record
50%
25644-25471 (51115)
Both legs:
oieshfn345Invested
$1,126.96
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$36.33
Record
57%
1814-1366 (3180)
Invested
$1,062.5
Value
$1.0K
PnL
-$115.06
Record
59%
46876-33139 (80015)
Invested
$169.17
Value
$169.17
PnL
-$14.1
Record
50%
3943-3929 (7872)
Invested
$26.24
Value
$26.49
PnL
+$0.25
Record
49%
13009-13568 (26577)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$15.75
Value
$13.88
PnL
-$1.88
Record
53%
5597-5025 (10622)
Invested
$4.93
Value
$4.93
PnL
-$0.41
Record
53%
16112-14276 (30388)
Invested
$0.64
Value
$0.7
PnL
+$0.07
Record
48%
8937-9552 (18489)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
63.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.