Karlsruher SC vs. 1. FC Heidenheim: O/U 3.5
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (75%) · Under at 73¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Under
8
Under 75%
$4.7K
$1.1K
59.5¢ → 73.4¢
+23% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 73%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Underavg 56.4¢ | $1.2K | $1.9K | +$724.06 | 50% 25208-24935 (50143) |
KC Kch-Temp | Overavg 44¢ | $1.0K | $1.2K | +$140.33 | 51% 216-210 (426) |
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 69.6¢ | $778.72 | $1.0K | +$246.61 | 59% 45969-32302 (78271) |
 VeryLucky888 | Underavg 54.7¢ | $491.97 | $449.97 | -$42 | 58% 42027-30514 (72541) |
MA manoamano<$100 | Overavg 45¢ | $48.7 | $54.11 | +$5.41 | 51% 480-462 (942) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Underavg 54¢ | $41.04 | $38 | -$3.04 | 58% 28788-21225 (50013) |
FO foooool<$100 | Underavg 63.4¢ | $21.63 | $29.77 | +$8.14 | 50% 10919-10736 (21655) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Underavg 56¢ | $11.62 | $10.38 | -$1.24 | 49% 12681-13099 (25780) |
Invested
$1,216.39
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$724.06
Record
50%
25208-24935 (50143)
Invested
$1,029.05
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$140.33
Record
51%
216-210 (426)
Invested
$778.72
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$246.61
Record
59%
45969-32302 (78271)
VeryLucky888Invested
$491.97
Value
$449.97
PnL
-$42
Record
58%
42027-30514 (72541)
Invested
$48.7
Value
$54.11
PnL
+$5.41
Record
51%
480-462 (942)
Invested
$41.04
Value
$38
PnL
-$3.04
Record
58%
28788-21225 (50013)
Invested
$21.63
Value
$29.77
PnL
+$8.14
Record
50%
10919-10736 (21655)
Invested
$11.62
Value
$10.38
PnL
-$1.24
Record
49%
12681-13099 (25780)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
73.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.