Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Over (100%). 2 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Karlsruher SC vs. 1. FC Heidenheim: O/U 2.5

2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (25%) · $5K held · ended Oct 31

Over>99¢Under33¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔄

Contrarian

Consensus Traders

No 25%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.0K

Combined PnL

$102.28

Smart Money Signal

2 of 8 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under33%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares3,367

Combined PnL-$1.49

Over6 traders

Total Value$577.98

Total Shares1,818

Combined PnL+$103.76

No — 25%Over — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 76.1¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	-$1.49	59% 45969-32302 (78271)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Overavg 34.2¢	$1.7K	$1.8K	+$85.94	50% 25208-24935 (50143)
└ Over leg	Overavg 34.2¢	$899.54	$985.48	+$85.94
└ No leg	Noavg 53.1¢	$794.3	$794.3	+$0
FO foooool	Overavg 17.6¢	$198.96	$337.22	+$138.26	50% 10919-10736 (21655)
RN1ARB<$100	Noavg 57.2¢	$319.87	$327.41	+$7.54	54% 56681-48879 (105560)
└ No leg	Noavg 57.2¢	$164.03	$164.03	+$0
└ Over leg	Overavg 31¢	$155.84	$163.38	+$7.54
VeryLucky888	Noavg 33.8¢	$221.84	$221.84	+$0	58% 42027-30514 (72541)
LI Lilybaeum	Overavg 35.3¢	$214.18	$198.07	-$16.11	61% 13722-8594 (22316)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Overavg 26.8¢	$49.43	$28.61	-$20.82	49% 12681-13099 (25780)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Overavg 27.5¢	$4.58	$6.81	+$2.24	49% 8081-8480 (16561)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Overavg 42¢	$4.1	$4.24	+$0.15	59% 30499-21212 (51711)
HRTrading<$100	Overavg 66¢	$2.97	$3.02	+$0.04	53% 4792-4312 (9104)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$2,073.3

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$1.49

Record

59%

45969-32302 (78271)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,693.84

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$85.94

Record

50%

25208-24935 (50143)

Both legs:

Over$899.5434.2¢+$85.94

No$794.353.1¢+$0

foooool

Over

Invested

$198.96

Value

$337.22

PnL

+$138.26

Record

50%

10919-10736 (21655)

RN1ARB<$100

Invested

$319.87

Value

$327.41

PnL

+$7.54

Record

54%

56681-48879 (105560)

Both legs:

No$164.0357.2¢+$0

Over$155.8431¢+$7.54

VeryLucky888

Invested

$221.84

Value

$221.84

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

42027-30514 (72541)

Lilybaeum

Over

Invested

$214.18

Value

$198.07

PnL

-$16.11

Record

61%

13722-8594 (22316)

LuckyLoo<$100

Over

Invested

$49.43

Value

$28.61

PnL

-$20.82

Record

49%

12681-13099 (25780)

topdogbigboi<$100

Over

Invested

$4.58

Value

$6.81

PnL

+$2.24

Record

49%

8081-8480 (16561)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Over

Invested

$4.1

Value

$4.24

PnL

+$0.15

Record

59%

30499-21212 (51711)

HRTrading<$100

Over

Invested

$2.97

Value

$3.02

PnL

+$0.04

Record

53%

4792-4312 (9104)

Smart Money Signal

2 of 8 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.