Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (98%). 7 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Karlsruher SC win on 2026-10-31?

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (58%) · No at 1.6¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 31

Yes98¢No2¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 58%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

-$346.72

Smart Money Entry

57.9¢ → 1.6¢

-97% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 12 top traders (58%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 98%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes98%

No2%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,882

Combined PnL-$384.86

Yes5 traders

Total Value$122.3

Total Shares156

Combined PnL+$38.14

No — 58%Yes — 42%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
oieshfn345CTR	Noavg 61.1¢	$1.2K	$700.86	-$460.99	57% 1746-1303 (3049)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Noavg 51.5¢	$447.77	$525.73	+$77.97	59% 45969-32302 (78271)
FO foooool<$100	Yesavg 54.2¢	$64.54	$92.82	+$28.28	50% 10919-10736 (21655)
RN1ARB<$100	Noavg 40.6¢	$501.84	$76.55	-$425.29	54% 56681-48879 (105560)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 60.1¢	$32.1	$52.25	+$20.15
└ No leg	Noavg 40.6¢	$469.74	$24.3	-$445.44
HRTrading<$100	Yesavg 33.6¢	$12.55	$19.75	+$7.2	53% 4792-4312 (9104)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Noavg 31¢	$8.1	$10.1	-$2.97	49% 8081-8480 (16561)
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100	Noavg 59¢	$5.9	$7.15	+$1.25	58% 18675-13734 (32409)
VeryLucky888<$100	Yesavg 26¢	$7.66	$4.85	+$2.32	58% 42027-30514 (72541)
AR ARocky33<$100	Yesavg 80¢	$4	$3.9	-$0.1	76% 4073-1287 (5360)
SP spyGoodLuck77<$100	Yesavg 27¢	$0.54	$0.97	+$0.43	63% 1773-1052 (2825)
LI LilybaeumCTR<$100	Noavg 28¢	$0.39	$0.4	+$0.01	61% 13722-8594 (22316)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Noavg 4.1¢	$0.21	$0.08	-$0.13	50% 25208-24935 (50143)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Noavg 1.3¢	$0.04	$0.05	+$0.01	50% 33488-33047 (66535)

oieshfn345CTR

Invested

$1,161.85

Value

$700.86

PnL

-$460.99

Record

57%

1746-1303 (3049)

UpTheBluesCTR

Invested

$447.77

Value

$525.73

PnL

+$77.97

Record

59%

45969-32302 (78271)

foooool<$100

Yes

Invested

$64.54

Value

$92.82

PnL

+$28.28

Record

50%

10919-10736 (21655)

RN1ARB<$100

Invested

$501.84

Value

$76.55

PnL

-$425.29

Record

54%

56681-48879 (105560)

Both legs:

Yes$32.160.1¢+$20.15

No$469.7440.6¢-$445.44

HRTrading<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.55

Value

$19.75

PnL

+$7.2

Record

53%

4792-4312 (9104)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Invested

$8.1

Value

$10.1

PnL

-$2.97

Record

49%

8081-8480 (16561)

BillBenter2026CTR<$100

Invested

$5.9

Value

$7.15

PnL

+$1.25

Record

58%

18675-13734 (32409)

VeryLucky888<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.66

Value

$4.85

PnL

+$2.32

Record

58%

42027-30514 (72541)

ARocky33<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$3.9

PnL

-$0.1

Record

76%

4073-1287 (5360)

spyGoodLuck77<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.54

Value

$0.97

PnL

+$0.43

Record

63%

1773-1052 (2825)

LilybaeumCTR<$100

Invested

$0.39

Value

$0.4

PnL

+$0.01

Record

61%

13722-8594 (22316)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Invested

$0.21

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$0.13

Record

50%

25208-24935 (50143)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Invested

$0.04

Value

$0.05

PnL

+$0.01

Record

50%

33488-33047 (66535)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 12 top traders (58%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 98%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance2.7%

1.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3639.37

Max Loss

-$100.00

3739.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.