Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (75%). 3 of 14 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will 1. FC Heidenheim win on 2026-10-31?

3 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (21%) · Yes at 26¢ · $24K held · ended Oct 31

Yes26¢No74¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 21%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$24.0K

Combined PnL

$2.6K

Smart Money Entry

47.5¢ → 25.5¢

-46% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 26%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 14 top traders (21%)Underdog side (market favors No 75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes26%

No75%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$10.8K

Total Shares22,689

Combined PnL+$349.51

No11 traders

Total Value$12.7K

Total Shares19,593

Combined PnL+$2.3K

Yes — 21%No — 79%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

17% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrNo 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1L 1l2ihj34li12u34CTR	Yesavg 47.9¢	$10.7K	$10.7K	+$363.97	48% 149-164 (313)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 51.5¢	$3.8K	$5.3K	+$1.5K	50% 25208-24935 (50143)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542	Noavg 52¢	$3.1K	$3.3K	+$150	47% 2521-2820 (5341)
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 52¢	$1.5K	$2.1K	+$649.1	59% 45969-32302 (78271)
CA Cannae	Noavg 51.5¢	$690.61	$697.4	+$6.79	53% 15980-14158 (30138)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 51.7¢	$635.2	$634	+$4.1	58% 42027-30514 (72541)
oieshfn345ARB<$100	Yesavg 48.1¢	$669.95	$494.08	-$175.86	57% 1746-1303 (3049)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 48.1¢	$528.46	$307.31	-$221.15
└ No leg	Noavg 54.5¢	$141.49	$186.77	+$45.29
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3	Noavg 50¢	$298.65	$310.59	+$11.95	50% 2519-2501 (5020)
LI Lilybaeum	Noavg 74¢	$241.62	$242.28	+$0.67	61% 13722-8594 (22316)
RN1CTR	Yesavg 29¢	$111.36	$96	-$15.36	54% 56681-48879 (105560)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 52.6¢	$73.06	$72.28	-$0.78	58% 28788-21225 (50013)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Noavg 69.7¢	$41.26	$41.12	-$0.14	49% 8081-8480 (16561)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 51¢	$11.92	$14.31	+$2.4	53% 4792-4312 (9104)
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100	Yesavg 36.5¢	$3.65	$4.55	+$0.9	58% 18675-13734 (32409)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Noavg 50¢	$1.42	$1.55	+$0.13	50% 33488-33047 (66535)

1l2ihj34li12u34CTR

Yes

Invested

$10,672.27

Value

$10.7K

PnL

+$363.97

Record

48%

149-164 (313)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$3,802.63

Value

$5.3K

PnL

+$1.5K

Record

50%

25208-24935 (50143)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542

Invested

$3,120

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$150

Record

47%

2521-2820 (5341)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$1,489.57

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$649.1

Record

59%

45969-32302 (78271)

Cannae

Invested

$690.61

Value

$697.4

PnL

+$6.79

Record

53%

15980-14158 (30138)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$635.2

Value

$634

PnL

+$4.1

Record

58%

42027-30514 (72541)

oieshfn345ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$669.95

Value

$494.08

PnL

-$175.86

Record

57%

1746-1303 (3049)

Both legs:

Yes$528.4648.1¢-$221.15

No$141.4954.5¢+$45.29

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3

Invested

$298.65

Value

$310.59

PnL

+$11.95

Record

50%

2519-2501 (5020)

Lilybaeum

Invested

$241.62

Value

$242.28

PnL

+$0.67

Record

61%

13722-8594 (22316)

RN1CTR

Yes

Invested

$111.36

Value

$96

PnL

-$15.36

Record

54%

56681-48879 (105560)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$73.06

Value

$72.28

PnL

-$0.78

Record

58%

28788-21225 (50013)

topdogbigboi<$100

Invested

$41.26

Value

$41.12

PnL

-$0.14

Record

49%

8081-8480 (16561)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$11.92

Value

$14.31

PnL

+$2.4

Record

53%

4792-4312 (9104)

BillBenter2026CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.65

Value

$4.55

PnL

+$0.9

Record

58%

18675-13734 (32409)

SnakeBall<$100

Invested

$1.42

Value

$1.55

PnL

+$0.13

Record

50%

33488-33047 (66535)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 26%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 14 top traders (21%)Underdog side (market favors No 75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

17% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrNo 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance27.5%

25.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$263.98

Max Loss

-$100.00

364.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.