Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (73%). 2 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Hannover 96 vs. SG Dynamo Dresden: O/U 3.5
2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (29%) · Under at 27¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 1
⚠️
Avoid
Under
7
Under 29%
$2.3K
-$56.08
63.5¢ → 27¢
-57% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 27%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 7 top traders (29%)Underdog side (market favors Over 73%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Overavg 36.1¢ | $1.0K | $1.7K | +$636.72 | 50% 25648-25477 (51125) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Underavg 63.9¢ | $1.2K | $555.32 | -$690.02 | 59% 46883-33151 (80034) |
0X 0xE337F5A28E9C530a676C959A1888Ba5368664ad6-1779639269540<$100 | Overavg 57¢ | $32.19 | $37 | +$4.81 | 82% 2512-565 (3077) |
FO foooool<$100 | Overavg 50¢ | $40.1 | $33.73 | -$6.36 | 50% 11176-10983 (22159) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Underavg 34.9¢ | $9.72 | $9.47 | -$0.24 | 48% 8942-9563 (18505) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Overavg 53¢ | $2.12 | $1.48 | -$0.64 | 53% 5610-5034 (10644) |
 fxwd12345<$100 | Overavg 57¢ | $1 | $0.65 | -$0.35 | 69% 1525-701 (2226) |
Invested
$1,034.5
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$636.72
Record
50%
25648-25477 (51125)
Invested
$1,245.34
Value
$555.32
PnL
-$690.02
Record
59%
46883-33151 (80034)
Invested
$32.19
Value
$37
PnL
+$4.81
Record
82%
2512-565 (3077)
Invested
$40.1
Value
$33.73
PnL
-$6.36
Record
50%
11176-10983 (22159)
Invested
$9.72
Value
$9.47
PnL
-$0.24
Record
48%
8942-9563 (18505)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$2.12
Value
$1.48
PnL
-$0.64
Record
53%
5610-5034 (10644)
fxwd12345<$100Invested
$1
Value
$0.65
PnL
-$0.35
Record
69%
1525-701 (2226)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
27.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.