Hannover 96 vs. SG Dynamo Dresden: O/U 2.5
3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (38%) · Over at 77¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Over
8
Over 38%
$4.6K
$58.45
61.1¢ → 76.5¢
+25% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 77%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Overavg 61¢ | $2.2K | $2.2K | -$18.34 | 59% 46876-33139 (80015) |
 us391CTR | Underavg 39¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | +$0 | 51% 1711-1674 (3385) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Underavg 39¢ | $663.58 | $714.63 | +$51.04 | 50% 25644-25471 (51115) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Underavg 39¢ | $243.19 | $251.01 | +$18.44 | 58% 42662-31048 (73710) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Underavg 39¢ | $67.86 | $67.86 | -$0.87 | 57% 29224-21607 (50831) |
TO topdogbigboi<$100 | Overavg 67¢ | $38.86 | $44.95 | +$6.09 | 48% 8937-9552 (18489) |
LI LilybaeumCTR<$100 | Underavg 39¢ | $38.86 | $40.72 | +$1.86 | 61% 13791-8664 (22455) |
 poshposh<$100 | Overavg 66¢ | $1.32 | $1.55 | +$0.23 | 58% 10646-7629 (18275) |
Invested
$2,211.92
Value
$2.2K
PnL
-$18.34
Record
59%
46876-33139 (80015)
us391CTRInvested
$1,252.42
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
1711-1674 (3385)
Invested
$663.58
Value
$714.63
PnL
+$51.04
Record
50%
25644-25471 (51115)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$243.19
Value
$251.01
PnL
+$18.44
Record
58%
42662-31048 (73710)
Invested
$67.86
Value
$67.86
PnL
-$0.87
Record
57%
29224-21607 (50831)
Invested
$38.86
Value
$44.95
PnL
+$6.09
Record
48%
8937-9552 (18489)
Invested
$38.86
Value
$40.72
PnL
+$1.86
Record
61%
13791-8664 (22455)
poshposh<$100Invested
$1.32
Value
$1.55
PnL
+$0.23
Record
58%
10646-7629 (18275)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
76.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.