Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (72%). 3 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Hannover 96 win on 2026-11-01?
3 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (25%) · Yes at 28¢ · $44K held · ended Nov 1
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
12
Yes 25%
$44.1K
-$570.96
47.9¢ → 28.5¢
-40% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 28%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 12 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors No 72%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
-37 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
13% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CR crisp1973CTR | Yesavg 47.9¢ | $23.7K | $24.3K | +$566.28 | 52% 76-69 (145) |
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 52.9¢ | $15.4K | $14.6K | -$842.14 | 59% 46876-33139 (80015) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 53.4¢ | $3.2K | $3.1K | -$236.69 | 50% 25644-25471 (51115) |
CA Cannae | Noavg 52.4¢ | $1.5K | $1.4K | -$52.74 | 53% 16112-14276 (30388) |
 HRTrading | Noavg 52.4¢ | $425.59 | $426.27 | +$0.68 | 53% 5597-5025 (10622) |
LE LeLynxMalynx | Noavg 52.6¢ | $210.38 | $206.84 | -$4.96 | 57% 29224-21607 (50831) |
 oieshfn345CTR<$100 | Yesavg 50¢ | $50 | $49 | -$1 | 57% 1814-1366 (3180) |
LO lonmi2511<$100 | Noavg 52.5¢ | $23.19 | $22.53 | -$0.66 | 62% 1191-722 (1913) |
LI Lilybaeum<$100 | Noavg 49¢ | $13.49 | $13.9 | +$0.41 | 61% 13791-8664 (22455) |
FO fooooolCTR<$100 | Yesavg 50¢ | $12.86 | $12.73 | -$0.13 | 50% 11169-10980 (22149) |
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100 | Noavg 51.5¢ | $10.3 | $10.2 | -$0.1 | 51% 1525-1476 (3001) |
BE Betziko<$100 | Noavg 49¢ | $2.45 | $2.53 | +$0.07 | 54% 6424-5409 (11833) |
Invested
$23,727.11
Value
$24.3K
PnL
+$566.28
Record
52%
76-69 (145)
Invested
$15,417.24
Value
$14.6K
PnL
-$842.14
Record
59%
46876-33139 (80015)
Invested
$3,244.36
Value
$3.1K
PnL
-$236.69
Record
50%
25644-25471 (51115)
Invested
$1,461.93
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$52.74
Record
53%
16112-14276 (30388)
HRTradingInvested
$425.59
Value
$426.27
PnL
+$0.68
Record
53%
5597-5025 (10622)
Invested
$210.38
Value
$206.84
PnL
-$4.96
Record
57%
29224-21607 (50831)
oieshfn345CTR<$100Invested
$50
Value
$49
PnL
-$1
Record
57%
1814-1366 (3180)
Invested
$23.19
Value
$22.53
PnL
-$0.66
Record
62%
1191-722 (1913)
Invested
$13.49
Value
$13.9
PnL
+$0.41
Record
61%
13791-8664 (22455)
Invested
$12.86
Value
$12.73
PnL
-$0.13
Record
50%
11169-10980 (22149)
Invested
$10.3
Value
$10.2
PnL
-$0.1
Record
51%
1525-1476 (3001)
Invested
$2.45
Value
$2.53
PnL
+$0.07
Record
54%
6424-5409 (11833)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
28.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.