Will SG Dynamo Dresden win on 2026-11-01?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 54¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 1

Yes47¢No53¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.8K

Combined PnL

-$10.26

Smart Money Entry

69.8¢ → 53.5¢

-23% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 54%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes47%

No54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$545.49

Total Shares737

Combined PnL+$26.12

Yes3 traders

Total Value$178.2

Total Shares685

Combined PnL-$36.37

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-13 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Yesavg 27.9¢	$705.51	$674.81	-$30.7	59% 46876-33139 (80015)
└ No leg	Noavg 69.7¢	$317.59	$348.53	+$30.95
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 27.9¢	$387.92	$326.27	-$61.65
oieshfn345ARB<$100	Noavg 75¢	$493.92	$386.82	-$107.1	57% 1814-1366 (3180)
└ No leg	Noavg 75¢	$378	$269.64	-$108.36
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 46¢	$115.92	$117.18	+$1.26
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 73¢	$286.95	$296.78	+$9.83	49% 13009-13568 (26577)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR	Yesavg 31¢	$196.85	$158.75	-$34.92	50% 3943-3929 (7872)
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllow	Noavg 69¢	$138	$148	+$11	54% 4942-4170 (9112)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Noavg 57.7¢	$55.48	$59.59	+$4.12	48% 8937-9552 (18489)
CA Cannae<$100	Noavg 70.9¢	$22.27	$22.56	+$0.27	53% 16112-14276 (30388)
GO gollazaCTR<$100	Yesavg 46¢	$18.4	$17	-$1.4	66% 3084-1607 (4691)
LO lonmi2511<$100	Noavg 72¢	$15.66	$16.42	+$0.76	62% 1191-722 (1913)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 25¢	$2.5	$2.45	-$0.05	58% 42662-31048 (73710)
poshposh<$100	Noavg 58¢	$2	$2.14	+$0.14	58% 10646-7629 (18275)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$705.51

Value

$674.81

PnL

-$30.7

Record

59%

46876-33139 (80015)

Both legs:

No$317.5969.7¢+$30.95

Yes$387.9227.9¢-$61.65

oieshfn345ARB<$100

Invested

$493.92

Value

$386.82

PnL

-$107.1

Record

57%

1814-1366 (3180)

Both legs:

No$37875¢-$108.36

Yes$115.9246¢+$1.26

LuckyLoo

Invested

$286.95

Value

$296.78

PnL

+$9.83

Record

49%

13009-13568 (26577)

NatoAlfistaCTR

Yes

Invested

$196.85

Value

$158.75

PnL

-$34.92

Record

50%

3943-3929 (7872)

WeBuyHighWeSelllow

Invested

$138

Value

$148

PnL

+$11

Record

54%

4942-4170 (9112)

topdogbigboi<$100

Invested

$55.48

Value

$59.59

PnL

+$4.12

Record

48%

8937-9552 (18489)

Cannae<$100

Invested

$22.27

Value

$22.56

PnL

+$0.27

Record

53%

16112-14276 (30388)

gollazaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.4

Value

$17

PnL

-$1.4

Record

66%

3084-1607 (4691)

lonmi2511<$100

Invested

$15.66

Value

$16.42

PnL

+$0.76

Record

62%

1191-722 (1913)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.45

PnL

-$0.05

Record

58%

42662-31048 (73710)

poshposh<$100

Invested

Value

$2.14

PnL

+$0.14

Record

58%

10646-7629 (18275)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 54%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-13 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.7%

53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$79.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

179.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.