SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. Holstein Kiel: O/U 2.5
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (40%) · Under at 96¢ · $826 held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 40%
$826.41
-$85.72
82.3¢ → 95.5¢
+16% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 82.8¢ | $629.24 | $703.37 | +$74.13 | 59% 46883-33151 (80034) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Overavg 23.4¢ | $238.55 | $96.74 | -$141.81 | 50% 25648-25477 (51125) |
LA LaarsYCTR<$100 | Overavg 43.3¢ | $20.63 | $10.95 | -$9.68 | 51% 3435-3353 (6788) |
LI LilybaeumCTR<$100 | Overavg 23.1¢ | $18.91 | $7.79 | -$11.12 | 61% 13791-8667 (22458) |
FO foooool<$100 | Underavg 49¢ | $4.8 | $7.55 | +$2.75 | 50% 11176-10983 (22159) |
Invested
$629.24
Value
$703.37
PnL
+$74.13
Record
59%
46883-33151 (80034)
Invested
$238.55
Value
$96.74
PnL
-$141.81
Record
50%
25648-25477 (51125)
Invested
$20.63
Value
$10.95
PnL
-$9.68
Record
51%
3435-3353 (6788)
Invested
$18.91
Value
$7.79
PnL
-$11.12
Record
61%
13791-8667 (22458)
Invested
$4.8
Value
$7.55
PnL
+$2.75
Record
50%
11176-10983 (22159)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.