Will Holstein Kiel win on 2026-11-01?

8 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (62%) · No at 75¢ · $8K held · ended Nov 1

Yes26¢No74¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 62%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.0K

Combined PnL

-$227.19

Smart Money Entry

64¢ → 74.5¢

+16% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 75%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 13 top traders (62%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes26%

No75%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$5.3K

Total Shares8,198

Combined PnL+$73.65

Yes5 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares4,443

Combined PnL-$300.84

No — 62%Yes — 38%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (7 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KC Kch-Temp	Noavg 64¢	$4.5K	$4.5K	+$0	51% 220-214 (434)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 35.1¢	$1.4K	$1.1K	-$298.69	50% 25648-25477 (51125)
oieshfn345ARB<$100	Noavg 66.1¢	$972.6	$925.33	-$47.26	57% 1814-1366 (3180)
└ No leg	Noavg 66.1¢	$542.77	$595.62	+$52.85
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 35.8¢	$429.83	$329.72	-$100.11
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 64.1¢	$601.55	$661.4	+$59.85	59% 46883-33151 (80034)
SH SharkVisionARB<$100	Noavg 72.9¢	$474.31	$452.26	-$22.05	71% 1381-572 (1953)
└ No leg	Noavg 72.9¢	$329.59	$327.89	-$1.7
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 32¢	$144.72	$124.37	-$20.35
CA CannaeCTR	Yesavg 36¢	$163.39	$163.39	+$0	53% 16115-14278 (30393)
FO foooool	Noavg 64¢	$99.84	$113.1	+$13.26	50% 11176-10983 (22159)
MA manoamano<$100	Noavg 64¢	$49.21	$49.21	+$0	51% 506-477 (983)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 74¢	$23.7	$22.01	-$1.61	53% 5610-5034 (10644)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Noavg 66¢	$17.16	$18.85	+$1.69	50% 33839-33425 (67264)
BE BetzikoCTR<$100	Yesavg 30.8¢	$9.25	$7.95	-$1.3	54% 6424-5410 (11834)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 63.9¢	$220.96	$7.83	+$0.46	58% 42674-31054 (73728)
LI LilybaeumCTR<$100	Yesavg 32¢	$5.5	$4.72	-$0.77	61% 13791-8667 (22458)
GG GGLPL<$100	Noavg 64¢	$3.71	$3.71	+$0	50% 697-693 (1390)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Yesavg 29¢	$1.45	$1.38	-$0.07	49% 13013-13570 (26583)

Kch-Temp

Invested

$4,453.93

Value

$4.5K

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

220-214 (434)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,381.3

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$298.69

Record

50%

25648-25477 (51125)

oieshfn345ARB<$100

Invested

$972.6

Value

$925.33

PnL

-$47.26

Record

57%

1814-1366 (3180)

Both legs:

No$542.7766.1¢+$52.85

Yes$429.8335.8¢-$100.11

UpTheBlues

Invested

$601.55

Value

$661.4

PnL

+$59.85

Record

59%

46883-33151 (80034)

SharkVisionARB<$100

Invested

$474.31

Value

$452.26

PnL

-$22.05

Record

71%

1381-572 (1953)

Both legs:

Invested

$163.39

Value

$163.39

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

16115-14278 (30393)

foooool

Invested

$99.84

Value

$113.1

PnL

+$13.26

Record

50%

11176-10983 (22159)

manoamano<$100

Invested

$49.21

Value

$49.21

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

506-477 (983)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$23.7

Value

$22.01

PnL

-$1.61

Record

53%

5610-5034 (10644)

SnakeBall<$100

Invested

$17.16

Value

$18.85

PnL

+$1.69

Record

50%

33839-33425 (67264)

BetzikoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.25

Value

$7.95

PnL

-$1.3

Record

54%

6424-5410 (11834)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$220.96

Value

$7.83

PnL

+$0.46

Record

58%

42674-31054 (73728)

LilybaeumCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.5

Value

$4.72

PnL

-$0.77

Record

61%

13791-8667 (22458)

GGLPL<$100

Invested

$3.71

Value

$3.71

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

697-693 (1390)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.45

Value

$1.38

PnL

-$0.07

Record

49%

13013-13570 (26583)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 75%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 13 top traders (62%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (7 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance76.4%

74.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$30.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

130.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.