Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth win on 2026-11-01?

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (43%) · No at 78¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 1

Yes23¢No77¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 43%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.3K

Combined PnL

$7.36

Smart Money Entry

73.2¢ → 77.5¢

+6% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 78%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 7 top traders (43%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes23%

No78%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$650

Total Shares756

Combined PnL+$10.56

Yes4 traders

Total Value$105.54

Total Shares398

Combined PnL-$3.2

No — 43%Yes — 57%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Noavg 72.8¢	$4.0K	$4.1K	+$89.65	50% 25648-25477 (51125)
└ No leg	Noavg 72.8¢	$3.0K	$3.1K	+$109.56
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 25¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	-$19.92
RN1ARB<$100	Noavg 72.9¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$31.2	54% 57146-49404 (106550)
└ No leg	Noavg 72.9¢	$596.36	$609.16	+$12.81
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 27.6¢	$581.31	$537.3	-$44.01
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 74.9¢	$369.38	$367.76	-$1.62	59% 46883-33151 (80034)
LI Lilybaeum	Noavg 71¢	$269.02	$281.08	+$12.06	61% 13791-8667 (22458)
oieshfn345ARB<$100	Noavg 73.9¢	$255.54	$259.44	+$3.91	57% 1814-1366 (3180)
└ No leg	Noavg 73.9¢	$188.34	$192.42	+$4.08
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 24.6¢	$67.2	$67.03	-$0.17
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Yesavg 26.4¢	$49.99	$48.26	-$1.73	50% 11176-10983 (22159)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Yesavg 37¢	$47.13	$47.99	+$0.86	53% 16115-14278 (30393)
BE BetzikoCTR<$100	Yesavg 30.2¢	$9.05	$7.35	-$1.7	54% 6424-5410 (11834)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Yesavg 37¢	$2.57	$1.95	-$0.63	57% 29226-21613 (50839)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 65¢	$1.04	$1.15	+$0.11	53% 5610-5034 (10644)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Invested

$4,033.4

Value

$4.1K

PnL

+$89.65

Record

50%

25648-25477 (51125)

Both legs:

No$3,000.0472.8¢+$109.56

Yes$1,033.3625¢-$19.92

RN1ARB<$100

Invested

$1,177.67

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$31.2

Record

54%

57146-49404 (106550)

Both legs:

No$596.3672.9¢+$12.81

Yes$581.3127.6¢-$44.01

UpTheBlues

Invested

$369.38

Value

$367.76

PnL

-$1.62

Record

59%

46883-33151 (80034)

Lilybaeum

Invested

$269.02

Value

$281.08

PnL

+$12.06

Record

61%

13791-8667 (22458)

oieshfn345ARB<$100

Invested

$255.54

Value

$259.44

PnL

+$3.91

Record

57%

1814-1366 (3180)

Both legs:

Invested

$49.99

Value

$48.26

PnL

-$1.73

Record

50%

11176-10983 (22159)

CannaeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$47.13

Value

$47.99

PnL

+$0.86

Record

53%

16115-14278 (30393)

BetzikoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.05

Value

$7.35

PnL

-$1.7

Record

54%

6424-5410 (11834)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.57

Value

$1.95

PnL

-$0.63

Record

57%

29226-21613 (50839)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$1.04

Value

$1.15

PnL

+$0.11

Record

53%

5610-5034 (10644)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 78%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 7 top traders (43%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.3%

77.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$26.03

Max Loss

-$100.00

126.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.