Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (63%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. Holstein Kiel: Both Teams to Score
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 37¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
3
Yes 67%
$1.3K
-$17.54
54.4¢ → 37¢
-32% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 37%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 63%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 43.2¢ | $507.13 | $740.41 | +$233.28 | 59% 46883-33151 (80034) |
FO fooooolCTR | Yesavg 49.3¢ | $478.76 | $374.54 | -$104.23 | 50% 11176-10983 (22159) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Yesavg 62.7¢ | $358.68 | $211.09 | -$146.59 | 58% 42674-31054 (73728) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
37.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.