Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Over (100%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
1. FC Kaiserslautern vs. Hertha BSC: O/U 2.5
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · $374 held · ended Oct 31
🔄
Contrarian
No
5
No 40%
$373.89
$1.13
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 39.8¢ | $262.23 | $234.07 | -$0.6 | 58% 41902-30424 (72326) |
LE LeLynxMalynx | Noavg 40¢ | $110.79 | $110.79 | +$0 | 58% 28689-21179 (49868) |
TO topdogbigboi<$100 | Overavg 62.3¢ | $9.65 | $15.47 | +$0.65 | 49% 7958-8291 (16249) |
LI Lilybaeum<$100 | Overavg 62¢ | $10.9 | $11.95 | +$1.05 | 62% 13706-8571 (22277) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Overavg 60¢ | $1.59 | $1.62 | +$0.03 | 53% 4616-4152 (8768) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$262.23
Value
$234.07
PnL
-$0.6
Record
58%
41902-30424 (72326)
Invested
$110.79
Value
$110.79
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
28689-21179 (49868)
Invested
$9.65
Value
$15.47
PnL
+$0.65
Record
49%
7958-8291 (16249)
Invested
$10.9
Value
$11.95
PnL
+$1.05
Record
62%
13706-8571 (22277)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$1.59
Value
$1.62
PnL
+$0.03
Record
53%
4616-4152 (8768)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.