Will 1. FC Kaiserslautern win on 2026-10-31?

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 100¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 31

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 78%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

-$252.04

Smart Money Entry

79.3¢ → 99.5¢

+25% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,278

Combined PnL-$225.49

Yes2 traders

Total Value$1.78

Total Shares370

Combined PnL-$26.55

No — 78%Yes — 22%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
oieshfn345	Noavg 76.7¢	$756.24	$576.67	-$179.58	57% 1719-1292 (3011)
LI Lilybaeum	Noavg 86¢	$344.82	$272.65	-$72.17	62% 13706-8571 (22277)
FO foooool	Noavg 74.7¢	$124.32	$149.02	+$24.7	50% 10864-10681 (21545)
CA Cannae<$100	Noavg 66¢	$54.54	$56.2	+$0.41	53% 15954-14130 (30084)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 97¢	$32.01	$32.98	+$0.97	53% 4616-4152 (8768)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Noavg 96¢	$14.47	$14.52	+$0.05	49% 7958-8291 (16249)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 67¢	$8.12	$8.24	+$0.12	58% 28689-21179 (49868)
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100	Yesavg 21¢	$1.05	$1.6	+$0.55	58% 18650-13710 (32360)
RN1CTR<$100	Yesavg 7.5¢	$27.28	$0.18	-$27.1	54% 56596-48765 (105361)

oieshfn345

Invested

$756.24

Value

$576.67

PnL

-$179.58

Record

57%

1719-1292 (3011)

Lilybaeum

Invested

$344.82

Value

$272.65

PnL

-$72.17

Record

62%

13706-8571 (22277)

foooool

Invested

$124.32

Value

$149.02

PnL

+$24.7

Record

50%

10864-10681 (21545)

Cannae<$100

Invested

$54.54

Value

$56.2

PnL

+$0.41

Record

53%

15954-14130 (30084)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$32.01

Value

$32.98

PnL

+$0.97

Record

53%

4616-4152 (8768)

topdogbigboi<$100

Invested

$14.47

Value

$14.52

PnL

+$0.05

Record

49%

7958-8291 (16249)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$8.12

Value

$8.24

PnL

+$0.12

Record

58%

28689-21179 (49868)

BillBenter2026CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.05

Value

$1.6

PnL

+$0.55

Record

58%

18650-13710 (32360)

RN1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$27.28

Value

$0.18

PnL

-$27.1

Record

54%

56596-48765 (105361)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.