Will Hertha BSC win on 2026-10-31?

9 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (64%) · Yes at 100¢ · $6K held · ended Oct 31

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 64%

Total Value

$6.0K

Combined PnL

-$17.27

Smart Money Entry

50.1¢ → 99.5¢

+99% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 14 top traders (64%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes9 traders

Total Value$5.4K

Total Shares9,817

Combined PnL+$119.73

No5 traders

Total Value$638.34

Total Shares1,818

Combined PnL-$137.01

Yes — 64%No — 36%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CR crisp1973	Yesavg 42¢	$2.6K	$2.2K	-$470.08	53% 75-67 (142)
oieshfn345	Yesavg 56.5¢	$1.5K	$2.1K	+$519.42	57% 1719-1292 (3011)
CA CannaeCTR	Noavg 58¢	$518.24	$585.25	+$67.01	53% 15954-14130 (30084)
UP UpTheBlues	Yesavg 66.1¢	$255.45	$383.98	+$128.53	59% 45810-32163 (77973)
SN SnakeBall	Yesavg 99.2¢	$273.15	$273.5	+$0.35	50% 33395-32964 (66359)
LI Lilybaeum	Yesavg 63.6¢	$214.46	$220.91	+$6.45	62% 13706-8571 (22277)
HRTrading	Yesavg 99.7¢	$183.13	$183.04	-$0.09	53% 4616-4152 (8768)
FO foooool<$100	Yesavg 64.6¢	$62.65	$51.93	-$10.72	50% 10864-10681 (21545)
PA pauleta23<$100	Yesavg 68¢	$97.09	$49.26	-$47.83	67% 23332-11736 (35068)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Noavg 58¢	$41.18	$46.51	+$5.33	58% 28689-21179 (49868)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100	Yesavg 66¢	$13.2	$6.9	-$6.3	51% 1445-1388 (2833)
VeryLucky888CTR	Noavg 58¢	$204.07	$5.67	-$198.4	58% 41902-30424 (72326)
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100	Noavg 19¢	$0.95	$0.65	-$0.3	58% 18650-13710 (32360)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Noavg 28.7¢	$10.91	$0.27	-$10.65	49% 7958-8291 (16249)

crisp1973

Yes

Invested

$2,632.48

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$470.08

Record

53%

75-67 (142)

oieshfn345

Yes

Invested

$1,543.13

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$519.42

Record

57%

1719-1292 (3011)

CannaeCTR

Invested

$518.24

Value

$585.25

PnL

+$67.01

Record

53%

15954-14130 (30084)

UpTheBlues

Yes

Invested

$255.45

Value

$383.98

PnL

+$128.53

Record

59%

45810-32163 (77973)

SnakeBall

Yes

Invested

$273.15

Value

$273.5

PnL

+$0.35

Record

50%

33395-32964 (66359)

Lilybaeum

Yes

Invested

$214.46

Value

$220.91

PnL

+$6.45

Record

62%

13706-8571 (22277)

HRTrading

Yes

Invested

$183.13

Value

$183.04

PnL

-$0.09

Record

53%

4616-4152 (8768)

foooool<$100

Yes

Invested

$62.65

Value

$51.93

PnL

-$10.72

Record

50%

10864-10681 (21545)

pauleta23<$100

Yes

Invested

$97.09

Value

$49.26

PnL

-$47.83

Record

67%

23332-11736 (35068)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Invested

$41.18

Value

$46.51

PnL

+$5.33

Record

58%

28689-21179 (49868)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.2

Value

$6.9

PnL

-$6.3

Record

51%

1445-1388 (2833)

VeryLucky888CTR

Invested

$204.07

Value

$5.67

PnL

-$198.4

Record

58%

41902-30424 (72326)

BillBenter2026CTR<$100

Invested

$0.95

Value

$0.65

PnL

-$0.3

Record

58%

18650-13710 (32360)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Invested

$10.91

Value

$0.27

PnL

-$10.65

Record

49%

7958-8291 (16249)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 14 top traders (64%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.