FC Energie Cottbus vs. VfL Bochum: O/U 3.5

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (71%) · Under at 79¢ · $15K held · ended Oct 30

Over22¢Under78¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 71%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$14.8K

Combined PnL

$195.14

Smart Money Entry

79.9¢ → 78.5¢

-2% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 79%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over22%

Under79%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$11.0K

Total Shares12,675

Combined PnL+$204.77

Over2 traders

Total Value$92.11

Total Shares384

Combined PnL-$9.63

Under — 71%Over — 29%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 81¢	$9.8K	$10.3K	+$486.06	59% 45380-31733 (77113)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Overavg 19.1¢	$3.5K	$3.5K	-$15.54	50% 24858-24564 (49422)
└ Over leg	Overavg 19.1¢	$1.9K	$1.8K	-$157.08
└ Under leg	Underavg 75.7¢	$1.6K	$1.7K	+$141.54
SN SnakeBall	Underavg 71¢	$954.83	$672.41	-$282.41	50% 33199-32726 (65925)
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100	Overavg 28.7¢	$290.05	$254.04	-$36.01	38% 3209-5230 (8439)
└ Over leg	Overavg 28.7¢	$198.66	$159.35	-$39.31
└ Under leg	Underavg 74.3¢	$91.39	$94.69	+$3.3
poshposhCTR<$100	Overavg 25.4¢	$92.07	$81.61	-$10.47	59% 9935-6911 (16846)
VeryLucky888<$100	Underavg 55¢	$49.58	$16.79	+$1.19	58% 41507-30134 (71641)
US User7429CTR<$100	Overavg 46¢	$9.66	$10.5	+$0.84	55% 8242-6656 (14898)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Underavg 77¢	$3.85	$3.88	+$0.02	49% 12488-12848 (25336)
FO foooool<$100	Underavg 54¢	$1.17	$1.09	-$0.09	50% 10770-10596 (21366)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$9,825.16

Value

$10.3K

PnL

+$486.06

Record

59%

45380-31733 (77113)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Over

Invested

$3,483.79

Value

$3.5K

PnL

-$15.54

Record

50%

24858-24564 (49422)

Both legs:

Over$1,919.0519.1¢-$157.08

Under$1,564.7475.7¢+$141.54

SnakeBall

Under

Invested

$954.83

Value

$672.41

PnL

-$282.41

Record

50%

33199-32726 (65925)

topdogbigboiARB<$100

Over

Invested

$290.05

Value

$254.04

PnL

-$36.01

Record

38%

3209-5230 (8439)

Both legs:

Over$198.6628.7¢-$39.31

Under$91.3974.3¢+$3.3

poshposhCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$92.07

Value

$81.61

PnL

-$10.47

Record

59%

9935-6911 (16846)

VeryLucky888<$100

Under

Invested

$49.58

Value

$16.79

PnL

+$1.19

Record

58%

41507-30134 (71641)

User7429CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$9.66

Value

$10.5

PnL

+$0.84

Record

55%

8242-6656 (14898)

LuckyLoo<$100

Under

Invested

$3.85

Value

$3.88

PnL

+$0.02

Record

49%

12488-12848 (25336)

foooool<$100

Under

Invested

$1.17

Value

$1.09

PnL

-$0.09

Record

50%

10770-10596 (21366)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 79%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance80.3%

78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$24.51

Max Loss

-$100.00

124.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.