Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (80%). 16 of 21 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will FC Energie Cottbus win on 2026-10-30?

16 of 21 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (76%) · Yes at 21¢ · $25K held · ended Oct 30

Yes21¢No79¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 76%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$24.8K

Combined PnL

$5.3K

Smart Money Entry

59.8¢ → 20.5¢

-66% since entry · 16 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 21%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

16 of 21 top traders (76%)Underdog side (market favors No 80%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed16 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes21%

No80%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes16 traders

Total Value$14.0K

Total Shares13,003

Combined PnL+$4.4K

No5 traders

Total Value$4.9K

Total Shares5,888

Combined PnL+$883.76

Yes — 76%No — 24%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 57.5¢	$5.6K	$10.2K	+$4.6K	50% 24858-24564 (49422)
OL olpyARB<$100	Yesavg 61.3¢	$4.4K	$4.5K	+$75.25	72% 390-148 (538)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 61.3¢	$2.8K	$2.4K	-$350.82
└ No leg	Noavg 37¢	$1.7K	$2.1K	+$426.07
oieshfn345	Noavg 45.4¢	$2.2K	$2.7K	+$553.13	57% 1677-1255 (2932)
SH SharkVisionCTR	Yesavg 81.6¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$5.39	70% 1349-566 (1915)
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 51.1¢	$773.64	$1.2K	+$453.12	49% 12488-12848 (25336)
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Yesavg 41.1¢	$839.8	$860.44	+$20.64	59% 45380-31733 (77113)
└ No leg	Noavg 41.6¢	$312.97	$597.69	+$284.72
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 41.1¢	$526.84	$262.75	-$264.08
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Yesavg 63.1¢	$763.82	$744.52	-$19.3	38% 3209-5230 (8439)
LA lavendergoomsCTR	Yesavg 66¢	$472.56	$565.64	+$93.08	52% 2615-2368 (4983)
RE retarbCTR	Yesavg 65¢	$436.8	$530.88	+$94.08	48% 4206-4475 (8681)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 70¢	$776.9	$473.86	-$95.95	58% 41507-30134 (71641)
FO foooool	Noavg 77.7¢	$373.32	$319.67	-$53.65	50% 10770-10596 (21366)
poshposhARB<$100	Yesavg 67.9¢	$357.88	$297.42	-$60.46	59% 9935-6911 (16846)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 67.9¢	$252.7	$230.83	-$21.87
└ No leg	Noavg 60¢	$105.18	$66.59	-$38.58
LI LilybaeumARB<$100	Yesavg 42.9¢	$300.35	$245.05	-$55.3	62% 13684-8539 (22223)
└ No leg	Noavg 44.3¢	$77	$138.24	+$61.24
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 42.9¢	$223.34	$106.81	-$116.53
BE Betziko	Noavg 63¢	$121.62	$148.73	+$27.1	54% 6194-5243 (11437)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Yesavg 31¢	$74.12	$99.23	+$25.11	53% 15882-14070 (29952)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Yesavg 50¢	$97.84	$81.2	-$16.63	59% 30376-21082 (51458)
US User7429CTR<$100	Yesavg 67.5¢	$58.33	$68.27	+$9.94	55% 8242-6656 (14898)
PA pauleta23ARB<$100	Noavg 48.9¢	$54.75	$58.3	+$3.55	67% 23273-11679 (34952)
└ No leg	Noavg 48.9¢	$30	$35.88	+$5.88
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 45.8¢	$24.75	$22.42	-$2.33
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Yesavg 21¢	$48.2	$47.05	-$1.15	49% 18995-19405 (38400)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 28.8¢	$46.54	$33.04	-$13.5	52% 4004-3650 (7654)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Yesavg 24.1¢	$22.31	$18.98	-$3.33	50% 33199-32726 (65925)
RO Rocky31CTR	Yesavg 63¢	$1.5K	$15.9	-$387.09	73% 1546-559 (2105)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Yesavg 51¢	$15.02	$12.23	-$2.8	48% 765-826 (1591)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100	Yesavg 54¢	$10.8	$8.3	-$2.5	51% 1402-1349 (2751)
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100	Yesavg 38¢	$1.9	$2.68	+$0.78	58% 18584-13649 (32233)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Yes

Invested

$5,614.39

Value

$10.2K

PnL

+$4.6K

Record

50%

24858-24564 (49422)

olpyARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$4,425.36

Value

$4.5K

PnL

+$75.25

Record

72%

390-148 (538)

Both legs:

Yes$2,758.6461.3¢-$350.82

No$1,666.7237¢+$426.07

oieshfn345

Invested

$2,156.55

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$553.13

Record

57%

1677-1255 (2932)

SharkVisionCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,501.15

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$5.39

Record

70%

1349-566 (1915)

LuckyLoo

Invested

$773.64

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$453.12

Record

49%

12488-12848 (25336)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$839.8

Value

$860.44

PnL

+$20.64

Record

59%

45380-31733 (77113)

Both legs:

No$312.9741.6¢+$284.72

Yes$526.8441.1¢-$264.08

topdogbigboiCTR

Yes

Invested

$763.82

Value

$744.52

PnL

-$19.3

Record

38%

3209-5230 (8439)

lavendergoomsCTR

Yes

Invested

$472.56

Value

$565.64

PnL

+$93.08

Record

52%

2615-2368 (4983)

retarbCTR

Yes

Invested

$436.8

Value

$530.88

PnL

+$94.08

Record

48%

4206-4475 (8681)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$776.9

Value

$473.86

PnL

-$95.95

Record

58%

41507-30134 (71641)

foooool

Invested

$373.32

Value

$319.67

PnL

-$53.65

Record

50%

10770-10596 (21366)

poshposhARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$357.88

Value

$297.42

PnL

-$60.46

Record

59%

9935-6911 (16846)

Both legs:

Yes$252.767.9¢-$21.87

No$105.1860¢-$38.58

LilybaeumARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$300.35

Value

$245.05

PnL

-$55.3

Record

62%

13684-8539 (22223)

Both legs:

No$7744.3¢+$61.24

Yes$223.3442.9¢-$116.53

Betziko

Invested

$121.62

Value

$148.73

PnL

+$27.1

Record

54%

6194-5243 (11437)

CannaeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$74.12

Value

$99.23

PnL

+$25.11

Record

53%

15882-14070 (29952)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$97.84

Value

$81.2

PnL

-$16.63

Record

59%

30376-21082 (51458)

User7429CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$58.33

Value

$68.27

PnL

+$9.94

Record

55%

8242-6656 (14898)

pauleta23ARB<$100

Invested

$54.75

Value

$58.3

PnL

+$3.55

Record

67%

23273-11679 (34952)

Both legs:

No$3048.9¢+$5.88

Yes$24.7545.8¢-$2.33

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$48.2

Value

$47.05

PnL

-$1.15

Record

49%

18995-19405 (38400)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$46.54

Value

$33.04

PnL

-$13.5

Record

52%

4004-3650 (7654)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$22.31

Value

$18.98

PnL

-$3.33

Record

50%

33199-32726 (65925)

Rocky31CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,504.95

Value

$15.9

PnL

-$387.09

Record

73%

1546-559 (2105)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.02

Value

$12.23

PnL

-$2.8

Record

48%

765-826 (1591)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.8

Value

$8.3

PnL

-$2.5

Record

51%

1402-1349 (2751)

BillBenter2026CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.9

Value

$2.68

PnL

+$0.78

Record

58%

18584-13649 (32233)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 21%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

16 of 21 top traders (76%)Underdog side (market favors No 80%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed16 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance22.3%

20.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$347.55

Max Loss

-$100.00

447.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.