Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (53%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will FC Energie Cottbus vs. VfL Bochum end in a draw?

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 48¢ · $8K held · ended Oct 30

Yes53¢No47¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 57%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.8K

Combined PnL

$96.14

Smart Money Entry

71.4¢ → 47.5¢

-33% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 48%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 53%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes53%

No48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$313.36

Total Shares406

Combined PnL+$21.62

Yes3 traders

Total Value$179.34

Total Shares386

Combined PnL+$74.52

No — 57%Yes — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Noavg 72.3¢	$4.8K	$5.0K	+$171.94	50% 24858-24564 (49422)
└ No leg	Noavg 72.3¢	$3.9K	$4.0K	+$94.61
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 24¢	$928	$1.0K	+$77.33
oieshfn345ARB<$100	Noavg 71.7¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$24.48	57% 1677-1255 (2932)
└ No leg	Noavg 71.7¢	$928.29	$945.57	+$17.29
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 25.8¢	$282.73	$295.4	+$7.19
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Noavg 74.1¢	$590.63	$509.21	-$81.42	59% 45380-31733 (77113)
└ No leg	Noavg 74.1¢	$506.14	$358.38	-$147.75
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 26.6¢	$84.49	$150.82	+$66.33
FO fooooolARB<$100	Noavg 73¢	$229.38	$288.47	+$59.09	50% 10770-10596 (21366)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 25.1¢	$105.28	$199.21	+$93.94
└ No leg	Noavg 73¢	$124.1	$89.25	-$34.85
LU LuckyLooARB<$100	Noavg 73¢	$212	$219.65	+$7.65	49% 12488-12848 (25336)
└ No leg	Noavg 73¢	$143.81	$145.78	+$1.97
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 24¢	$68.19	$73.87	+$5.68
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Noavg 70.1¢	$168.61	$175.26	+$6.65	38% 3209-5230 (8439)
LI Lilybaeum	Yesavg 27.3¢	$100.49	$174.66	+$74.17	62% 13684-8539 (22223)
BE BetzikoCTR<$100	Noavg 73.1¢	$80.54	$95.31	+$14.77	54% 6194-5243 (11437)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Noavg 74¢	$39.19	$39.19	-$0	53% 15882-14070 (29952)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Yesavg 23.3¢	$3.3	$3.61	+$0.32	50% 33199-32726 (65925)
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100	Noavg 68¢	$3.4	$3.6	+$0.2	58% 18584-13649 (32233)
HRTrading<$100	Yesavg 25¢	$1.03	$1.07	+$0.04	52% 4004-3650 (7654)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Invested

$4,845.18

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$171.94

Record

50%

24858-24564 (49422)

Both legs:

No$3,917.1872.3¢+$94.61

Yes$92824¢+$77.33

oieshfn345ARB<$100

Invested

$1,211.02

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$24.48

Record

57%

1677-1255 (2932)

Both legs:

No$928.2971.7¢+$17.29

Yes$282.7325.8¢+$7.19

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Invested

$590.63

Value

$509.21

PnL

-$81.42

Record

59%

45380-31733 (77113)

Both legs:

No$506.1474.1¢-$147.75

Yes$84.4926.6¢+$66.33

fooooolARB<$100

Invested

$229.38

Value

$288.47

PnL

+$59.09

Record

50%

10770-10596 (21366)

Both legs:

Yes$105.2825.1¢+$93.94

No$124.173¢-$34.85

LuckyLooARB<$100

Invested

$212

Value

$219.65

PnL

+$7.65

Record

49%

12488-12848 (25336)

Both legs:

No$143.8173¢+$1.97

Yes$68.1924¢+$5.68

topdogbigboiCTR

Invested

$168.61

Value

$175.26

PnL

+$6.65

Record

38%

3209-5230 (8439)

Lilybaeum

Yes

Invested

$100.49

Value

$174.66

PnL

+$74.17

Record

62%

13684-8539 (22223)

BetzikoCTR<$100

Invested

$80.54

Value

$95.31

PnL

+$14.77

Record

54%

6194-5243 (11437)

CannaeCTR<$100

Invested

$39.19

Value

$39.19

PnL

-$0

Record

53%

15882-14070 (29952)

SnakeBall<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.3

Value

$3.61

PnL

+$0.32

Record

50%

33199-32726 (65925)

BillBenter2026CTR<$100

Invested

$3.4

Value

$3.6

PnL

+$0.2

Record

58%

18584-13649 (32233)

HRTrading<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.03

Value

$1.07

PnL

+$0.04

Record

52%

4004-3650 (7654)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 48%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 53%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance49.7%

47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$101.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

201.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.