FC Energie Cottbus vs. VfL Bochum: Both Teams to Score
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (63%) · Yes at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
8
Yes 63%
$1.7K
-$431.77
75.7¢ → 100¢
+32% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Yesavg 96.7¢ | $674.35 | $512.63 | -$161.72 | 59% 45380-31733 (77113) |
SN SnakeBallCTR | Noavg 42.1¢ | $499.75 | $469.32 | -$30.43 | 50% 33199-32726 (65925) |
 VeryLucky888 | Yesavg 67¢ | $697.67 | $442.55 | -$255.12 | 58% 41507-30134 (71641) |
FO foooool | Yesavg 63.9¢ | $190.87 | $171.31 | -$19.56 | 50% 10770-10596 (21366) |
TO topdogbigboi | Yesavg 64¢ | $82.93 | $100.31 | +$17.38 | 38% 3209-5230 (8439) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Noavg 2.3¢ | $1.48 | $17.05 | +$15.57 | 59% 9935-6911 (16846) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Yesavg 54¢ | $15.66 | $15.81 | +$0.15 | 49% 12488-12848 (25336) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Noavg 33¢ | $2.64 | $4.6 | +$1.96 | 52% 4004-3650 (7654) |
Invested
$674.35
Value
$512.63
PnL
-$161.72
Record
59%
45380-31733 (77113)
Invested
$499.75
Value
$469.32
PnL
-$30.43
Record
50%
33199-32726 (65925)
VeryLucky888Invested
$697.67
Value
$442.55
PnL
-$255.12
Record
58%
41507-30134 (71641)
Invested
$190.87
Value
$171.31
PnL
-$19.56
Record
50%
10770-10596 (21366)
Invested
$82.93
Value
$100.31
PnL
+$17.38
Record
38%
3209-5230 (8439)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$1.48
Value
$17.05
PnL
+$15.57
Record
59%
9935-6911 (16846)
Invested
$15.66
Value
$15.81
PnL
+$0.15
Record
49%
12488-12848 (25336)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$2.64
Value
$4.6
PnL
+$1.96
Record
52%
4004-3650 (7654)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.