Will VfL Bochum win on 2026-10-30?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 56¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$1.4K
$155.26
56.8¢ → 56.5¢
+0% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 56%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OM omnibus-076daa | Noavg 56.8¢ | $1.1K | $1.3K | +$193.67 | 49% 18979-19390 (38369) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Yesavg 42¢ | $127.79 | $100.4 | -$27.38 | 50% 24854-24560 (49414) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 56.8¢ | $399.73 | $19.14 | -$10.64 | 58% 41488-30106 (71594) |
CA Cannae<$100 | Noavg 56¢ | $8.46 | $8.54 | +$0.08 | 53% 15879-14069 (29948) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 42¢ | $2.14 | $1.68 | -$0.46 | 52% 3994-3637 (7631) |
Invested
$1,073.34
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$193.67
Record
49%
18979-19390 (38369)
Invested
$127.79
Value
$100.4
PnL
-$27.38
Record
50%
24854-24560 (49414)
VeryLucky888Invested
$399.73
Value
$19.14
PnL
-$10.64
Record
58%
41488-30106 (71594)
Invested
$8.46
Value
$8.54
PnL
+$0.08
Record
53%
15879-14069 (29948)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$2.14
Value
$1.68
PnL
-$0.46
Record
52%
3994-3637 (7631)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.