DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs. Eintracht Braunschweig: O/U 3.5

9 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Over (64%) · Over at 100¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 30

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 64%

Total Value

$3.2K

Combined PnL

$348.24

Smart Money Entry

51.6¢ → 99.5¢

+93% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

9 of 14 top traders (64%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over9 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares3,225

Combined PnL+$389.09

Under5 traders

Total Value$633.09

Total Shares1,430

Combined PnL-$40.85

Over — 64%Under — 36%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Overavg 43.4¢	$1.4K	$1.7K	+$329.55	50% 24858-24564 (49422)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Underavg 53¢	$413.93	$410.03	-$3.9	48% 765-826 (1591)
ARTEM-DZYUBA	Overavg 98¢	$245	$246.25	+$1.25	86% 5097-864 (5961)
LU LuckyLoo	Overavg 47.2¢	$100.86	$142.03	+$41.16	49% 12488-12848 (25336)
SN SnakeBall	Overavg 47¢	$141.38	$141.57	+$0.19	50% 33199-32726 (65925)
PA pauleta23<$100	Overavg 98.5¢	$99.48	$99.48	+$0	67% 23273-11679 (34952)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Underavg 50.8¢	$141.24	$93.21	-$48.03	59% 45380-31733 (77113)
RN1CTR<$100	Underavg 38.8¢	$92.62	$89.55	-$3.07	54% 56326-48479 (104805)
FO foooool<$100	Overavg 51¢	$75.93	$82.92	+$7	50% 10770-10596 (21366)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Overavg 99¢	$63.42	$63.1	-$0.32	49% 18995-19405 (38400)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Underavg 25.4¢	$25.16	$39.55	+$14.4	38% 3209-5230 (8439)
HRTrading<$100	Overavg 34.4¢	$11.39	$21.34	+$9.95	52% 4004-3650 (7654)
poshposh<$100	Overavg 97¢	$20.22	$20.54	+$0.31	59% 9935-6911 (16846)
0X 0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191CTR<$100	Underavg 2¢	$1	$0.75	-$0.25	47% 4525-5012 (9537)

GoalLineGhost

Over

Invested

$1,413.06

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$329.55

Record

50%

24858-24564 (49422)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Under

Invested

$413.93

Value

$410.03

PnL

-$3.9

Record

48%

765-826 (1591)

ARTEM-DZYUBA

Over

Invested

$245

Value

$246.25

PnL

+$1.25

Record

86%

5097-864 (5961)

LuckyLoo

Over

Invested

$100.86

Value

$142.03

PnL

+$41.16

Record

49%

12488-12848 (25336)

SnakeBall

Over

Invested

$141.38

Value

$141.57

PnL

+$0.19

Record

50%

33199-32726 (65925)

pauleta23<$100

Over

Invested

$99.48

Value

$99.48

PnL

+$0

Record

67%

23273-11679 (34952)

UpTheBluesCTR

Under

Invested

$141.24

Value

$93.21

PnL

-$48.03

Record

59%

45380-31733 (77113)

RN1CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$92.62

Value

$89.55

PnL

-$3.07

Record

54%

56326-48479 (104805)

foooool<$100

Over

Invested

$75.93

Value

$82.92

PnL

+$7

Record

50%

10770-10596 (21366)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Over

Invested

$63.42

Value

$63.1

PnL

-$0.32

Record

49%

18995-19405 (38400)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$25.16

Value

$39.55

PnL

+$14.4

Record

38%

3209-5230 (8439)

HRTrading<$100

Over

Invested

$11.39

Value

$21.34

PnL

+$9.95

Record

52%

4004-3650 (7654)

poshposh<$100

Over

Invested

$20.22

Value

$20.54

PnL

+$0.31

Record

59%

9935-6911 (16846)

0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191CTR<$100

Under

Invested

Value

$0.75

PnL

-$0.25

Record

47%

4525-5012 (9537)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Over

9 of 14 top traders (64%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.