DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs. Eintracht Braunschweig: O/U 2.5
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (33%) · Over at 100¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
Over
6
Over 33%
1 arb excluded
$1.5K
-$42.22
77.2¢ → 100¢
+29% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Overavg 75.1¢ | $986.32 | $1.0K | +$26.61 | 50% 24858-24564 (49422) |
LI LilybaeumARB<$100 | Underavg 32.7¢ | $322.1 | $259.65 | -$62.45 | 62% 13684-8539 (22223) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 75.9¢ | $137.02 | $143.54 | +$6.52 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 32.7¢ | $185.08 | $116.11 | -$68.97 | |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Overavg 99¢ | $99 | $74 | -$25 | 49% 18995-19405 (38400) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Underavg 42¢ | $135.67 | $70.74 | +$8.24 | 58% 41507-30134 (71641) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Underavg 23.1¢ | $31.1 | $27.58 | -$3.52 | 59% 45380-31733 (77113) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Underavg 52¢ | $58.6 | $24 | -$34.6 | 54% 56326-48479 (104805) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Underavg 14¢ | $14 | $0.05 | -$13.95 | 38% 3209-5230 (8439) |
Invested
$986.32
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$26.61
Record
50%
24858-24564 (49422)
Invested
$322.1
Value
$259.65
PnL
-$62.45
Record
62%
13684-8539 (22223)
Both legs:
Invested
$99
Value
$74
PnL
-$25
Record
49%
18995-19405 (38400)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$135.67
Value
$70.74
PnL
+$8.24
Record
58%
41507-30134 (71641)
Invested
$31.1
Value
$27.58
PnL
-$3.52
Record
59%
45380-31733 (77113)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$58.6
Value
$24
PnL
-$34.6
Record
54%
56326-48479 (104805)
Invested
$14
Value
$0.05
PnL
-$13.95
Record
38%
3209-5230 (8439)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.