DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs. Eintracht Braunschweig: 1st Half O/U 1.5
4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 100¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
Over
8
Over 50%
$1.4K
-$977.88
97.8¢ → 100¢
+2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf5848342fc388908f2d25a9012cc18a0ad193979 | Overavg 99¢ | $1.0K | $495.11 | -$515.53 | 65% 86-46 (132) |
 JhonAlexanderHinestroza | Overavg 98¢ | $980 | $485 | -$495 | 57% 1128-842 (1970) |
SN SnakeBallCTR | Underavg 58¢ | $341.07 | $304.89 | -$36.18 | 50% 33199-32726 (65925) |
 bernardi22CTR<$100 | Underavg 3¢ | $5 | $85.83 | +$80.83 | 56% 1267-984 (2251) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Overavg 64.1¢ | $27.39 | $20.73 | -$6.66 | 52% 4004-3650 (7654) |
VA Vampiro1<$100 | Overavg 91.6¢ | $10.3 | $5.46 | -$4.84 | 77% 3247-975 (4222) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Underavg 52¢ | $2.6 | $2.58 | -$0.02 | 54% 56326-48479 (104805) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Underavg 61¢ | $3.05 | $2.58 | -$0.47 | 59% 45380-31733 (77113) |
Invested
$1,010.64
Value
$495.11
PnL
-$515.53
Record
65%
86-46 (132)
JhonAlexanderHinestrozaInvested
$980
Value
$485
PnL
-$495
Record
57%
1128-842 (1970)
Invested
$341.07
Value
$304.89
PnL
-$36.18
Record
50%
33199-32726 (65925)
bernardi22CTR<$100Invested
$5
Value
$85.83
PnL
+$80.83
Record
56%
1267-984 (2251)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$27.39
Value
$20.73
PnL
-$6.66
Record
52%
4004-3650 (7654)
Invested
$10.3
Value
$5.46
PnL
-$4.84
Record
77%
3247-975 (4222)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$2.6
Value
$2.58
PnL
-$0.02
Record
54%
56326-48479 (104805)
Invested
$3.05
Value
$2.58
PnL
-$0.47
Record
59%
45380-31733 (77113)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.