Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 5 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Exact Score: DSC Arminia Bielefeld 0 - 1 Eintracht Braunschweig?

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (71%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $714 held · ended Oct 30

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 71%

Total Value

$714.3

Combined PnL

$566.02

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$676.48

Total Shares1,459

Combined PnL+$600.19

No2 traders

Total Value$37.82

Total Shares75

Combined PnL-$34.17

Yes — 71%No — 29%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FO fooooolCTR	Yesavg 5¢	$39.69	$392.89	+$353.21	50% 10770-10596 (21366)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Yesavg 5¢	$16.47	$161.52	+$145.05	50% 33199-32726 (65925)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 5.1¢	$12.82	$68.8	+$62.64	58% 41507-30134 (71641)
RN1CTR<$100	Yesavg 7¢	$7.53	$53.22	+$45.7	54% 56326-48479 (104805)
KO korda77<$100	Noavg 95¢	$53.2	$28.28	-$24.92	52% 4960-4589 (9549)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$18.72	$9.54	-$9.25	52% 4004-3650 (7654)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Yesavg 7¢	$6.45	$0.05	-$6.4	59% 45380-31733 (77113)

fooooolCTR

Yes

Invested

$39.69

Value

$392.89

PnL

+$353.21

Record

50%

10770-10596 (21366)

SnakeBallCTR

Yes

Invested

$16.47

Value

$161.52

PnL

+$145.05

Record

50%

33199-32726 (65925)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.82

Value

$68.8

PnL

+$62.64

Record

58%

41507-30134 (71641)

RN1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.53

Value

$53.22

PnL

+$45.7

Record

54%

56326-48479 (104805)

korda77<$100

Invested

$53.2

Value

$28.28

PnL

-$24.92

Record

52%

4960-4589 (9549)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$18.72

Value

$9.54

PnL

-$9.25

Record

52%

4004-3650 (7654)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.45

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$6.4

Record

59%

45380-31733 (77113)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.