Will DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs. Eintracht Braunschweig end in a draw?
10 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (77%) · No at 97¢ · $9K held · ended Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
No
13
No 77%
1 arb excluded
$9.0K
$171.66
77.5¢ → 97.5¢
+26% since entry · 10 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
10 of 13 top traders (77%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 us391 | Noavg 74¢ | $6.7K | $6.9K | +$224.86 | 51% 1672-1622 (3294) |
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 94¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$6.4 | 59% 45380-31733 (77113) |
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 96.2¢ | $563.96 | $509.04 | -$54.92 | 50% 33199-32726 (65925) |
CA Cannae | Noavg 74¢ | $124.82 | $129.04 | +$4.22 | 53% 15882-14070 (29952) |
LI Lilybaeum<$100 | Noavg 88.2¢ | $70.37 | $66.92 | -$3.45 | 62% 13684-8539 (22223) |
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100 | Noavg 74¢ | $51.92 | $59.06 | +$7.14 | 38% 3209-5230 (8439) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 74¢ | $32.84 | $35.29 | +$2.44 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 16.4¢ | $19.08 | $23.78 | +$4.7 | |
BE Betziko<$100 | Noavg 81.9¢ | $37.33 | $37.14 | -$0.19 | 54% 6194-5243 (11437) |
GO GoalLineGhost<$100 | Noavg 87.1¢ | $30.55 | $32.79 | +$2.24 | 50% 24858-24564 (49422) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Yesavg 26¢ | $35.36 | $31.96 | -$3.4 | 58% 28421-20980 (49401) |
 RN1<$100 | Noavg 90.9¢ | $29 | $26 | -$3 | 54% 56326-48479 (104805) |
FO foooool<$100 | Noavg 80¢ | $25 | $24.84 | -$0.16 | 50% 10770-10596 (21366) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.8¢ | $10.28 | $8.43 | -$1.85 | 49% 18995-19405 (38400) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 79¢ | $3.95 | $3.98 | +$0.02 | 52% 4004-3650 (7654) |
 oieshfn345CTR<$100 | Yesavg 7¢ | $0.38 | $1.26 | +$0.89 | 57% 1677-1255 (2932) |
us391Invested
$6,694.24
Value
$6.9K
PnL
+$224.86
Record
51%
1672-1622 (3294)
Invested
$1,160.2
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$6.4
Record
59%
45380-31733 (77113)
Invested
$563.96
Value
$509.04
PnL
-$54.92
Record
50%
33199-32726 (65925)
Invested
$124.82
Value
$129.04
PnL
+$4.22
Record
53%
15882-14070 (29952)
Invested
$70.37
Value
$66.92
PnL
-$3.45
Record
62%
13684-8539 (22223)
Invested
$51.92
Value
$59.06
PnL
+$7.14
Record
38%
3209-5230 (8439)
Both legs:
Invested
$37.33
Value
$37.14
PnL
-$0.19
Record
54%
6194-5243 (11437)
Invested
$30.55
Value
$32.79
PnL
+$2.24
Record
50%
24858-24564 (49422)
Invested
$35.36
Value
$31.96
PnL
-$3.4
Record
58%
28421-20980 (49401)
RN1<$100Invested
$29
Value
$26
PnL
-$3
Record
54%
56326-48479 (104805)
Invested
$25
Value
$24.84
PnL
-$0.16
Record
50%
10770-10596 (21366)
Invested
$10.28
Value
$8.43
PnL
-$1.85
Record
49%
18995-19405 (38400)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$3.95
Value
$3.98
PnL
+$0.02
Record
52%
4004-3650 (7654)
oieshfn345CTR<$100Invested
$0.38
Value
$1.26
PnL
+$0.89
Record
57%
1677-1255 (2932)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.