Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (100%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs. Eintracht Braunschweig: Both Teams to Score
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 0.1¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 30
⚠️
Avoid
No
6
No 67%
1 arb excluded
$1.4K
$292.79
40.4¢ → 0.1¢
-100% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Noavg 40.6¢ | $732.91 | $937.69 | +$204.77 | 59% 45380-31733 (77113) |
FO fooooolARB<$100 | Yesavg 58.2¢ | $182.54 | $161.83 | -$20.71 | 50% 10770-10596 (21366) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 58.2¢ | $107.47 | $86.74 | -$20.74 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 53¢ | $75.07 | $75.1 | +$0.03 | |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Noavg 38¢ | $300.35 | $152.84 | +$60.41 | 58% 41507-30134 (71641) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Noavg 39¢ | $42.51 | $62.67 | +$20.16 | 58% 28421-20980 (49401) |
 RN1<$100 | Yesavg 46¢ | $56.89 | $57.51 | +$0.62 | 54% 56326-48479 (104805) |
PA pauleta23CTR<$100 | Noavg 44.4¢ | $42.04 | $54.41 | +$12.37 | 67% 23273-11679 (34952) |
TO topdogbigboi<$100 | Yesavg 54.7¢ | $24.83 | $19.28 | -$5.55 | 38% 3209-5230 (8439) |
Invested
$732.91
Value
$937.69
PnL
+$204.77
Record
59%
45380-31733 (77113)
Invested
$182.54
Value
$161.83
PnL
-$20.71
Record
50%
10770-10596 (21366)
Both legs:
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$300.35
Value
$152.84
PnL
+$60.41
Record
58%
41507-30134 (71641)
Invested
$42.51
Value
$62.67
PnL
+$20.16
Record
58%
28421-20980 (49401)
RN1<$100Invested
$56.89
Value
$57.51
PnL
+$0.62
Record
54%
56326-48479 (104805)
Invested
$42.04
Value
$54.41
PnL
+$12.37
Record
67%
23273-11679 (34952)
Invested
$24.83
Value
$19.28
PnL
-$5.55
Record
38%
3209-5230 (8439)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.