Will Eintracht Braunschweig win on 2026-10-30?

11 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold No (69%) · No at 98¢ · $14K held · ended Oct 30

Yes2¢No98¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 69%

Total Value

$14.2K

Combined PnL

$208.26

Smart Money Entry

76¢ → 98.2¢

+29% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 16 top traders (69%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No11 traders

Total Value$13.5K

Total Shares17,275

Combined PnL+$202.56

Yes5 traders

Total Value$701.59

Total Shares4,788

Combined PnL+$5.69

No — 69%Yes — 31%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542	Noavg 73¢	$6.8K	$7.0K	+$46.34	47% 2470-2777 (5247)
CA Cannae	Noavg 74¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	-$10.99	53% 15882-14070 (29952)
sapupu	Noavg 75¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$0	53% 57-50 (107)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 81.5¢	$1.1K	$1.3K	+$219.75	50% 33199-32726 (65925)
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 96.9¢	$904.39	$909.91	+$5.52	59% 45380-31733 (77113)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 23.2¢	$589.21	$634.23	+$45.02	50% 24858-24564 (49422)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 73.5¢	$591.07	$603.12	+$12.04	58% 41507-30134 (71641)
LI Lilybaeum	Noavg 92.7¢	$419.41	$351.01	-$68.4	62% 13684-8539 (22223)
BE Betziko	Noavg 91.2¢	$148.77	$156.29	+$7.51	54% 6194-5243 (11437)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 74.4¢	$94.53	$95.25	+$0.72	58% 28421-20980 (49401)
RN1CTR<$100	Yesavg 4.2¢	$76.84	$35.48	-$41.36	54% 56326-48479 (104805)
poshposh<$100	Noavg 87¢	$36.81	$31.73	-$5.08	59% 9935-6911 (16846)
oieshfn345CTR<$100	Yesavg 22.6¢	$21.38	$23.6	+$2.22	57% 1677-1255 (2932)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Noavg 95¢	$24.91	$20.04	-$4.86	38% 3209-5230 (8439)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.9¢	$6.23	$5.9	-$0.33	49% 18995-19405 (38400)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 23.5¢	$2.23	$2.38	+$0.15	52% 4004-3650 (7654)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542

Invested

$6,766.2

Value

$7.0K

PnL

+$46.34

Record

47%

2470-2777 (5247)

Cannae

Invested

$1,610.59

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$10.99

Record

53%

15882-14070 (29952)

sapupu

Invested

$1,500

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

57-50 (107)

SnakeBall

Invested

$1,075.38

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$219.75

Record

50%

33199-32726 (65925)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$904.39

Value

$909.91

PnL

+$5.52

Record

59%

45380-31733 (77113)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Yes

Invested

$589.21

Value

$634.23

PnL

+$45.02

Record

50%

24858-24564 (49422)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$591.07

Value

$603.12

PnL

+$12.04

Record

58%

41507-30134 (71641)

Lilybaeum

Invested

$419.41

Value

$351.01

PnL

-$68.4

Record

62%

13684-8539 (22223)

Betziko

Invested

$148.77

Value

$156.29

PnL

+$7.51

Record

54%

6194-5243 (11437)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$94.53

Value

$95.25

PnL

+$0.72

Record

58%

28421-20980 (49401)

RN1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$76.84

Value

$35.48

PnL

-$41.36

Record

54%

56326-48479 (104805)

poshposh<$100

Invested

$36.81

Value

$31.73

PnL

-$5.08

Record

59%

9935-6911 (16846)

oieshfn345CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$21.38

Value

$23.6

PnL

+$2.22

Record

57%

1677-1255 (2932)

topdogbigboi<$100

Invested

$24.91

Value

$20.04

PnL

-$4.86

Record

38%

3209-5230 (8439)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.23

Value

$5.9

PnL

-$0.33

Record

49%

18995-19405 (38400)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.23

Value

$2.38

PnL

+$0.15

Record

52%

4004-3650 (7654)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 16 top traders (69%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.2%

98.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.77

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.