Will DSC Arminia Bielefeld win on 2026-10-30?

11 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (69%) · Yes at 98¢ · $10K held · ended Oct 30

Yes98¢No2¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 69%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.3K

Combined PnL

$284.97

Smart Money Entry

79.6¢ → 97.5¢

+22% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

11 of 16 top traders (69%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes98%

No3%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes11 traders

Total Value$5.5K

Total Shares5,958

Combined PnL+$241.05

No5 traders

Total Value$292.43

Total Shares1,213

Combined PnL+$43.92

Yes — 69%No — 31%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 75% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Yesavg 92.1¢	$2.8K	$2.9K	+$149.03	59% 45380-31733 (77113)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Noavg 31.2¢	$2.8K	$2.6K	-$146.37	50% 24858-24564 (49422)
└ No leg	Noavg 31.2¢	$1.8K	$1.6K	-$242.74
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 66.3¢	$960.78	$1.1K	+$96.37
RN1ARB<$100	Yesavg 58.6¢	$1.2K	$1.7K	+$540.05	54% 56326-48479 (104805)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 58.6¢	$1.1K	$1.3K	+$257.61
└ No leg	Noavg 8.1¢	$121.48	$403.92	+$282.44
oieshfn345	Yesavg 65.2¢	$1.2K	$1.7K	+$132.51	57% 1677-1255 (2932)
VeryLucky888	Yesavg 48¢	$129.82	$252.88	+$123.06	58% 41507-30134 (71641)
OL olpyARB<$100	Yesavg 80.1¢	$175.25	$192.47	+$17.21	72% 390-148 (538)
└ No leg	Noavg 11¢	$21.17	$98.16	+$76.99
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 80.1¢	$154.08	$94.31	-$59.77
FO forrestgumper	Yesavg 78.4¢	$305.4	$190.92	-$114.48	48% 611-672 (1283)
LI LilybaeumCTR	Noavg 18.8¢	$142.66	$186.96	+$44.3	62% 13684-8539 (22223)
TO topdogbigboi	Yesavg 92.8¢	$132.2	$104.39	-$27.81	38% 3209-5230 (8439)
HRTrading	Yesavg 89¢	$109.68	$89.29	-$20.39	52% 4004-3650 (7654)
BE Betziko<$100	Yesavg 74.6¢	$80.75	$79.5	-$1.25	54% 6194-5243 (11437)
FO foooool<$100	Yesavg 74.3¢	$74.57	$74.74	+$0.17	50% 10770-10596 (21366)
us391CTR<$100	Noavg 51¢	$68.22	$68.22	-$0	51% 1672-1622 (3294)
CA Cannae<$100	Yesavg 48¢	$44.82	$45.83	+$1.1	53% 15882-14070 (29952)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Yesavg 49¢	$38.92	$38.13	-$0.79	58% 28421-20980 (49401)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Noavg 6.3¢	$23.76	$28.38	+$4.62	50% 33199-32726 (65925)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100	Yesavg 74¢	$7.4	$7.3	-$0.1	51% 1402-1349 (2751)
poshposhCTR<$100	Noavg 21¢	$12.48	$6.53	-$5.95	59% 9935-6911 (16846)
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100	Noavg 14¢	$1.4	$2.35	+$0.95	58% 18584-13649 (32233)

UpTheBlues

Yes

Invested

$2,779.35

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$149.03

Record

59%

45380-31733 (77113)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Invested

$2,782.51

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$146.37

Record

50%

24858-24564 (49422)

Both legs:

No$1,821.7331.2¢-$242.74

Yes$960.7866.3¢+$96.37

RN1ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$1,173.01

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$540.05

Record

54%

56326-48479 (104805)

Both legs:

Yes$1,051.5358.6¢+$257.61

No$121.488.1¢+$282.44

oieshfn345

Yes

Invested

$1,158.58

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$132.51

Record

57%

1677-1255 (2932)

VeryLucky888

Yes

Invested

$129.82

Value

$252.88

PnL

+$123.06

Record

58%

41507-30134 (71641)

olpyARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$175.25

Value

$192.47

PnL

+$17.21

Record

72%

390-148 (538)

Both legs:

No$21.1711¢+$76.99

Yes$154.0880.1¢-$59.77

forrestgumper

Yes

Invested

$305.4

Value

$190.92

PnL

-$114.48

Record

48%

611-672 (1283)

LilybaeumCTR

Invested

$142.66

Value

$186.96

PnL

+$44.3

Record

62%

13684-8539 (22223)

topdogbigboi

Yes

Invested

$132.2

Value

$104.39

PnL

-$27.81

Record

38%

3209-5230 (8439)

HRTrading

Yes

Invested

$109.68

Value

$89.29

PnL

-$20.39

Record

52%

4004-3650 (7654)

Betziko<$100

Yes

Invested

$80.75

Value

$79.5

PnL

-$1.25

Record

54%

6194-5243 (11437)

foooool<$100

Yes

Invested

$74.57

Value

$74.74

PnL

+$0.17

Record

50%

10770-10596 (21366)

us391CTR<$100

Invested

$68.22

Value

$68.22

PnL

-$0

Record

51%

1672-1622 (3294)

Cannae<$100

Yes

Invested

$44.82

Value

$45.83

PnL

+$1.1

Record

53%

15882-14070 (29952)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Yes

Invested

$38.92

Value

$38.13

PnL

-$0.79

Record

58%

28421-20980 (49401)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Invested

$23.76

Value

$28.38

PnL

+$4.62

Record

50%

33199-32726 (65925)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.4

Value

$7.3

PnL

-$0.1

Record

51%

1402-1349 (2751)

poshposhCTR<$100

Invested

$12.48

Value

$6.53

PnL

-$5.95

Record

59%

9935-6911 (16846)

BillBenter2026CTR<$100

Invested

$1.4

Value

$2.35

PnL

+$0.95

Record

58%

18584-13649 (32233)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

11 of 16 top traders (69%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 75% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.6%

97.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.