Hertha BSC vs. 1. FC Magdeburg: O/U 5.5

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 82¢ · $895 held · ended Sep 6

Over19¢Under81¢Ended Sun, Sep 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 60%

Total Value

$895.36

Combined PnL

-$43.02

Smart Money Entry

85.5¢ → 81.5¢

-5% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 82%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over19%

Under82%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$846.62

Total Shares1,039

Combined PnL-$41.76

Over2 traders

Total Value$48.73

Total Shares263

Combined PnL-$1.27

Under — 60%Over — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 50% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888	Underavg 82¢	$553.5	$550.13	-$3.38	58% 45442-32918 (78360)
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 96.7¢	$285.2	$240.26	-$44.94	58% 50269-36312 (86581)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Underavg 72¢	$49.68	$56.24	+$6.56	47% 11082-12418 (23500)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Overavg 15.8¢	$30.68	$35.97	+$5.29	59% 31875-22502 (54377)
RN1CTR<$100	Overavg 28¢	$19.32	$12.77	-$6.56	53% 60065-52434 (112499)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$553.5

Value

$550.13

PnL

-$3.38

Record

58%

45442-32918 (78360)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$285.2

Value

$240.26

PnL

-$44.94

Record

58%

50269-36312 (86581)

topdogbigboi<$100

Under

Invested

$49.68

Value

$56.24

PnL

+$6.56

Record

47%

11082-12418 (23500)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$30.68

Value

$35.97

PnL

+$5.29

Record

59%

31875-22502 (54377)

RN1CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$19.32

Value

$12.77

PnL

-$6.56

Record

53%

60065-52434 (112499)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 82%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 50% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance83.2%

81.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$20.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

120.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.