Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (66%). 2 of 2 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Hertha BSC vs. 1. FC Magdeburg: O/U 4.5
2 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold Over (100%) · Over at 35¢ · $8 held · ended Sep 6
⚖️
Neutral
Over
2
Over 100%
$7.76
-$10.15
Research grade
NeutralOver at 35%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 2 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Under 66%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
US User7429CTR<$100 | Overavg 48¢ | $8.4 | $6.04 | -$8.4 | 56% 9146-7299 (16445) |
SP spyGoodLuck77CTR<$100 | Overavg 35¢ | $1.75 | $1.72 | -$1.75 | 62% 1912-1155 (3067) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
34.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.