Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Parma Perm, while the market favors CSKA Moscow (80%). 1 of 1 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
CSKA Moscow vs. Parma Perm
Positions of the top Polymarket traders in this market · ends Nov 3
⚠️
Avoid
Parma Perm
1
Parma Perm 100%
1 arb excluded
$57.91
-$1.38
Research grade
AvoidParma Perm at 20%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 1 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors CSKA Moscow 80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 HRTradingARB<$100 | Parma Permavg 18.4¢ | $53.65 | $53.29 | -$0.35 | 54% 2609-2230 (4839) |
| └ Parma Perm leg | Parma Permavg 18.4¢ | $30.56 | $33.29 | +$2.74 | |
| └ CSKA Moscow leg | CSKA Moscowavg 92.4¢ | $23.09 | $20 | -$3.09 | |
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100 | Parma Permavg 26¢ | $6 | $4.62 | -$1.38 | 59% 29934-20654 (50588) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
20.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.